Worldwide Grain Surplus means lower exports and shipping

Besides coal and iron, seaborne grain markets may provide little comfort to failing dry bulk companies. Worldwide grain surplus has sent export shipments falling to three-year lows. Senior Economist Jay O’Neil explained that there are too many ships and not enough demand from the grain trade. US Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimates world grain stores stand at 3.027 billion tonnes and estimated world trade for 2015/2016 to be at 361 million tonnes. Senior Economist Jay O’Neil explained that US soybean exports to China have remained healthy but corn and wheat exports are lagging and likely not going to meet current projections. Freight rates reflect that weakness. Supramax rates from the US Gulf to China and south Japan destinations have fallen from $19,800 per day in August 2015 to $8,000 per day as January. Besides USA there is growing competition from other exporters like Argentina. Argentina’s combination of a devalued currency and relaxed export duties (cut a soybean export tariff and several crop taxes) brightened Argentina’s export outlook