28-May-2025

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) declined on Tuesday to its lowest level in nearly two weeks as demand weakened across all bulk carrier segments, dropping 44 points to 1,296, the lowest since 14 May 2025; the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) decreased by 91 points to 1,809, with average daily earnings for capesize bulk carriers falling by $752 to $15,005, while iron ore futures extended their losses for a third consecutive session amid renewed speculation about crude steel production cuts in China, the leading consumer, which continues to grapple with long-standing overcapacity issues; the Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) declined by 38 points to 1,208, marking its lowest level in over a month, with average daily earnings for panamax bulk carriers down $349 to $10,869; the Baltic Supramax Index (BSI) slipped 9 points to 974, recording its lowest value in more than two weeks.

26-May-2025

Capesize Bulk Carrier Market – Baltic Capesize Index (BCI)

The capesize bulk carrier market closed the week on a stronger footing after a hesitant start, recovering well from early disruptions linked to uncertainty in Guinea following the revocation of mining licenses. Initial nervousness in the market soon faded, with the Pacific basin leading gains, supported by steady demand from miners and operators. The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) C5 route rose consistently, starting in the high $7.00s and reaching $8.55 by the week’s close. In the South Atlantic, activity picked up midweek, with mid-June laycans fixing repeatedly in the mid-to-high $18,000s amid fresh cargo flows. The North Atlantic, however, lagged behind due to weak fronthaul sentiment and limited transatlantic activity. Despite early losses, the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) 5TC average rebounded slightly to finish Friday at $15,757, marginally above Monday’s opening level.

Panamax Bulk Carrier Market – Baltic Panamax Index (BPI)

The panamax bulk carrier market experienced another subdued week, with downward pressure continuing across all regions. Shipowners showed little resistance as prompt and ballasting tonnage was frequently discounted. The Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) P2A route remained around the $17,000 level throughout the week, with multiple fixtures from North Coast South America (NCSA) to China. Activity from East Coast South America (ECSA) was considered positional and largely flat for index dates, with average earnings hovering in the low-to-mid $12,000s. In the Pacific, overall demand remained healthy, though sentiment on rates was mixed at the start of the week. As ECSA failed to absorb tonnage, rates eased due to growing supply. Panamax rates initially reached as high as $13,000 for South China–Australia round voyages but slipped back to around $10,500 by the week's end, while much of the Indonesian demand was met using older tonnage.

Ultramax/Supramax Bulk Carrier Market – Baltic Supramax Index (BSI)

The Atlantic ultramax/supramax bulk carrier market opened the week on a firmer note, but momentum softened towards the end. Support came from the US Gulf (USG), where a 63,000 DWT ultramax bulk carrier was fixed for a trip to East Coast India (ECI) with petcoke at $19,750. ECSA remained balanced, with steady transatlantic demand but limited fronthaul interest. In the Continent–Mediterranean region, sentiment was mixed but showed slight improvement. In Asia, the market remained positional. Northern demand supported transpacific rounds, but fresh cargo inquiries from the south were limited. Notable fixtures included a 66,000 DWT ultramax open North China fixing at $11,000 for a USG voyage, a 58,000 DWT supramax fixed South China via Indonesia to Thailand at $10,500, and a 63,000 DWT ultramax from South Africa to ECI at $16,000 plus a $160,000 ballast bonus. Period activity was muted, though a 64,000 DWT ultramax open in Thailand fixed for a short term at around $14,000.

Handysize Bulk Carrier Market – Baltic Handysize Index (BHSI)

The handysize bulk carrier market posted a largely positive week, with freight rates increasing across most regions. The Continent–Mediterranean continued to strengthen, though sentiment remained primarily positional. Fixtures included a 40,000 DWT handysize fixed from Belgium via Norway to Brazil at $10,500. In ECSA and the USG, tight tonnage and solid cargo flows provided support. Highlights included a 38,000 DWT fixed from South Argentina to Venezuela at $16,000, and a 37,000 DWT fixed from the US East Coast to the UK at $14,000 plus a $20,000 ballast bonus. In Asia, handysize rates remained firm, particularly in Southeast Asia and the North Pacific, where a tightening supply of ships led charterers to increase their offers. A 40,000 DWT handysize was fixed from Thailand to North China at approximately $12,000.

23-May-2025

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) edged higher on Thursday, breaking a three-day losing streak as improved demand in the capesize bulk carrier segment lifted the market, with the index gaining 4 points to reach 1,341. The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) advanced by 27 points to 1,882, with average daily earnings for capesize bulk carriers increasing by $222 to $15,605, amid ongoing expectations that capesize rates will strengthen through the remainder of 2025, potentially peaking in Q4 2025. Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) moved within a narrow range as traders balanced firm demand for iron ore in China with the impact of rising shipments from Australia and Brazil. In contrast, the Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) declined by 17 points to 1,269, with panamax bulk carrier average daily earnings slipping by $153 to $11,419, while the Baltic Supramax Index (BSI) dipped by 2 points to 986.

22-May-2025

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell on Wednesday to a near one-week low due to weaker rates for capesize and panamax bulk carrier segments. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) lost 3 points to 1,337, marking its lowest level since 15 May 2025. The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) was down 8 points at 1,855, with average daily earnings for capesize bulk carriers losing $71 to $15,383. Iron ore futures prices inched up amid resilient near-term demand for the steel-making ingredient, though gains were limited by subdued economic data from top consumer China. The Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) receded 8 points to 1,286, with average daily earnings for panamax bulk carriers declining by $74 to $11,572. The Baltic Supramax Index (BSI) was up 6 points at 988.

21-May-2025

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) edged down on Tuesday, pressured by softer demand for capesize bulk carriers, with the index slipping 7 points to 1,340 and the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) declining by 25 points to 1,863 as average daily earnings for capesize bulk carriers dropped $202 to $15,454; iron ore shipments from Australia to China experienced delays in Q1 2025 due to adverse weather conditions, and now that most iron ore inventories have been cleared and market conditions are stabilising, the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) is seeing a downward adjustment; meanwhile, iron ore futures prices moved slightly higher on the back of steady near-term demand for the steelmaking material, although gains were capped by lacklustre economic indicators from China; the Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) rose by 1 point to 1,294, with average daily earnings for panamax bulk carriers increasing $11 to $11,646, while the Baltic Supramax Index (BSI) advanced 2 points to 982.

20-May-2025

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) declined on Monday, breaking a two-session winning streak, as weaker capesize bulk carrier rates dragged the market down, with the index falling 41 points to 1,347; the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) dropped 130 points to 1,888, and average daily earnings for capesize bulk carriers decreased by $1,080 to $15,656, while iron ore futures also fell under pressure from weaker-than-expected economic data out of top consumer China and uncertain short-term demand for the steelmaking commodity; the Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) edged up 3 points to 1,293, with average daily earnings for panamax bulk carriers rising by $27 to $11,635; meanwhile, the Baltic Supramax Index (BSI) gained 2 points to reach 980.

15-May-2025

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) declined for the second consecutive session, falling by 13 points to 1,267, marking its lowest level since 22 April 2025, as capesize and panamax bulk carrier rates continued to weaken. The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) dropped 23 points to 1,648, with average daily earnings for capesize bulk carriers decreasing by $189 to $13,670. In the Atlantic basin, bulk carrier freight rates have come under pressure due to a noticeable slowdown in cargo loadings compared to early May 2025, while the number of bulk carriers in ballast has remained relatively stable. Iron ore futures climbed to their highest level in over five weeks, buoyed by the announcement from China and the United States to roll back most of the tariffs imposed since early April 2025, following trade talks held over the weekend in Geneva, raising optimism for a more lasting resolution to their trade dispute. The Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) fell 21 points to 1,295, also the lowest since 22 April 2025, with average daily earnings for panamax bulk carriers falling by $190 to $11,654, while the Baltic Supramax Index (BSI) remained unchanged at 977 points.

13-May-2025

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) advanced on Monday, breaking a four-session decline, driven by firmer rates for capesize and supramax bulk carriers. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) rose by 5 points to reach 1,304, the highest level recorded since 8 May 2025. The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) increased by 22 points to 1,731. Average daily earnings for capesize bulk carriers climbed by $185 to $14,354. The Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) fell by 11 points to 1,342, marking its lowest point since 23 April 2025. Average daily earnings for panamax bulk carriers decreased by $98 to $12,075. In a notable development, the United States and China announced an agreement to significantly reduce reciprocal tariffs as part of efforts to resolve their ongoing trade war, which has had wide-ranging effects on the global economy. Although this could lead to a short-term increase in freight rates, there remains uncertainty surrounding the eventual outcome of the negotiations. The Baltic Supramax Index (BSI) edged up by one point to 970.

12-May-2025

Capesize Bulk Carrier Market – Baltic Capesize Index (BCI)

The capesize bulk carrier market remained under pressure throughout the shortened week, with limited recovery in both the Atlantic and Pacific basins. The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) 5TC declined by $3,072 week-on-week, closing at $14,169 on Friday. A midweek trans-Atlantic voyage with a shorter duration returned a low time charter equivalent (TCE), causing the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) C8 route to settle at $13,071, which was the main driver of the losses in the North Atlantic. In Brazil, although activity picked up for late May 2025 to mid-June 2025 laycans, capesize bulk carrier rates fell steadily through the week, with the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) C3 route ending at $18,215. The Pacific basin also saw consistent engagement from miners, but at increasingly weaker levels, with rates declining from $7.90 to the mid $7 range.

Panamax Bulk Carrier Market – Baltic Panamax Index (BPI)

The panamax bulk carrier market experienced an active and busy week, particularly in the North Atlantic, where gains were recorded. The Atlantic basin witnessed improved activity, notably on grain shipments from the North Coast South America (NCSA) for both fronthaul and trans-Atlantic routes, supported by a reduced tonnage list midweek, with index-type panamax bulk carriers fixed at $18,500 and $19,000 for delivery in Spain via NCSA and redelivery in China. From South America, while activity was limited for index dates, rates gradually softened over the week; however, for end-May 2025 arrivals, 82K DWT kamsarmax bulk carriers were fixed APS South America at approximately $16,500 plus a $650,000 ballast bonus to China. In Asia, the market showed signs of fragility despite fair demand levels, but a lack of support from South America led to weakening rates across the board due to an oversupply of panamax bulk carriers. Period demand was scarce, though a late-week report confirmed an 82K DWT kamsarmax bulk carrier fixed from the Philippines for 10–12 months at a rate in the low to mid $12,000s.

Ultramax/Supramax Bulk Carrier Market – Baltic Supramax Index (BSI)

With holidays impacting the start of the week, the ultramax/supramax bulk carrier market was positional, with the Atlantic basin faring better for shipowners. Both the US Gulf (USG) and East Coast South America (ECSA) showed firmer demand, pushing ultramax/supramax bulk carrier rates higher. A 63K DWT ultramax bulk carrier was fixed for a USG trans-Atlantic trip at $16,000, while a similar fixture from ECSA concluded in the mid $20,000s. The Continent-Mediterranean region was inconsistent, though a 56K DWT supramax bulk carrier was fixed from Spain for a trip to NCSA at $10,000. In the Indian Ocean, demand strengthened, with ultramax/supramax bulk carriers chartered from West Africa (WAFR) for South Africa to Far East trips; a 64K DWT ultramax bulk carrier fixed delivery Ghana via South Africa redelivery China at $16,000, and a 66K DWT ultramax bulk carrier fixed Iraq via UAE to Chittagong at $18,000. In the Pacific, demand remained subdued, resulting in rate losses, including a 63K DWT ultramax bulk carrier fixed delivery Thailand to Indonesia at $13,000 and another 63K DWT ultramax bulk carrier fixed North China via Australia redelivery UAE at $14,000.

Handysize Bulk Carrier Market – Baltic Handysize Index (BHSI)

The handysize bulk carrier market posted mixed regional results this week, with overall sentiment remaining flat. In the Continent and the Mediterranean, fundamentals remained weak with limited activity. East Coast South America (ECSA) showed steady demand and stable tonnage, resulting in marginal rate improvements; a 37K DWT handysize bulk carrier was fixed from Argentina to Turkiye at $17,000. In the US Gulf (USG), sentiment was negative as excess tonnage pressured rates; a 35K DWT handysize bulk carrier was fixed from SW Pass via USG to ARAG at $8,000. The Pacific region also stayed flat despite a slight rise in tonnage and some new demand, though cargo volumes were insufficient to push rates higher; a 40K DWT handysize bulk carrier was fixed delivery Hong Kong to Colombia East Coast with steels at $12,000. Period activity was limited, with one fixture of a 40K DWT handysize bulk carrier for worldwide trading in June 2025 at 120.5% of the Baltic Handysize Index (BHSI).

9-May-2025

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) dropped to its lowest point in over two weeks on Thursday, pressured by declining rates in the capesize bulk carrier segment, as the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell by 58 points, or 4.2%, to 1,316, marking its weakest level since 23 April 2025. The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) decreased by 183 points to 1,752, also reaching its lowest in more than two weeks, with average daily earnings for capesize bulk carriers falling by $1,518 to $14,532. The Baltic Panamax Index (BPI) inched up by one point to 1,363, with average daily earnings for panamax bulk carriers rising by $12 to $12,269. The Baltic Supramax Index (BSI) increased by 7 points to 968.

6-May-2025

We anticipate a weakening of the dry bulk market’s supply and demand balance in both 2025 and 2026, largely influenced by recent changes in US trade policy that have negatively impacted the economic outlook and heightened uncertainty, prompting a downward revision of our cargo demand growth projection by 0.5 percentage points for both years. The tariff increases introduced by the US and China on 25 April 2025 are expected to directly affect around 4% of dry bulk tonne-mile demand, particularly impacting the growth of minor bulk cargo volumes as shipments to the US may stagnate or decline, while China is likely to increase imports from other countries, pushing the US to seek alternative trade partners. Demand is expected to be especially weak for iron ore and coal, the two largest dry bulk commodities, with iron ore shipments projected to stagnate due to declining Chinese steel demand linked to the property sector crisis, and coal shipments forecast to drop by 2–3% in 2025 and 1–2% in 2026 as renewable energy capacity expands and domestic coal production grows in China and India. On the supply side, declining freight rates may result in slower sailing speeds as shipowners attempt to reduce bunker fuel costs, which in turn would slow the rate of effective fleet growth; as a result, ship demand is projected to remain flat in 2025 and increase by 1–2% in 2026, while ship supply is expected to rise by 1.5–2.5% in 2025 and 2–3% in 2026. Given this weaker outlook, freight rates are expected to remain below 2024 levels throughout 2025 and 2026, with the panamax bulk carrier segment facing the most pressure due to its heavy reliance on coal, while the capesize bulk carrier segment may benefit from limited fleet expansion, supporting relatively stronger rates. Asset values are also likely to be affected, as weaker freight rates could weigh on second-hand ship prices, and although prices have risen by 0.8% since the start of 2025, we expect softening through the remainder of the year; newbuilding bulk carrier prices have already fallen 1.5% since January and are not expected to return to their previous highs. Our base case also assumes that ships will not fully return to the Red Sea in 2025 and 2026, with continued rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope, and a full return would represent a 2% reduction in ship demand, further weakening the market outlook. So far in 2025, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) has fallen by an average of 36% year-on-year, driven by declining freight rates across all ship segments, with the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) recording a 43% drop—the steepest among the indices—due to a retreat from 2024 highs, while panamax freight rates have remained subdued since Q3 2024 amid tepid demand growth. The outlook for panamax rates remains the most challenging, as over half of their cargo is coal, for which we forecast declining shipment volumes; handysize bulk carriers may also underperform compared to previous expectations due to softer minor bulk demand and a slowing Chinese economy, making a return to 2024 freight rate highs unlikely. Forward Freight Agreements (FFA) suggest that capesize bulk carrier rates could see improvement in Q3 and Q4 2025 compared to current levels, while panamax and supramax bulk carrier rates may post only marginal gains, with all segments expected to remain below 2024 rate levels, particularly supramax. Second-hand bulk carrier prices are likely to soften alongside freight rates through 2025 and 2026, despite modest year-to-date gains, and in April 2025, the average price for a five-year-old bulk carrier was 88.4% of the cost of a newbuild; meanwhile, newbuilding prices are down 1.5% since the beginning of the year, and dry bulk, tanker, and container contracting fell significantly in Q1 2025, reducing the global order book and limiting future shipyard capacity. Recycling prices are expected to stay low due to competitive low-cost steel exports from China and Vietnam to South Asia, although Indian recycling prices may hold up better following the imposition of a 12% tariff on certain flat steel imports in April 2025.

5-May-2025

Capesize Bulk Carrier Market – Baltic Capesize Index (BCI)

The capesize bulk carrier market maintained a largely firm stance throughout the week, underpinned by tightening vessel availability in both the Pacific and Atlantic basins, coupled with consistent cargo flow. In the Pacific, strong activity by miners on the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) C5 route and solid operator volumes contributed to early momentum. A significantly reduced capesize bulk carrier tonnage list helped uphold sentiment, despite a mid-week pause and a holiday-related slowdown on Thursday. Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) C5 rates hovered near the $8.00 level, though capesize bulk carrier fixing activity declined towards the end of the week. On the Brazil and West Africa to China routes, market levels remained stable, but the extended ballaster list continued to restrain any upward movement. The Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) C3 declined from $19.845 at the start of the week to $19.345 by Friday. The North Atlantic showed more positive signs, supported by steady spot cargo volumes across both Transatlantic and Fronthaul routes. Tight tonnage supply and firm fixtures towards the end of the week led to a strong Fronthaul deal, boosting Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) C9 by $1,126 to close at $38,719.

Panamax Bulk Carrier Market – Baltic Panamax Index (BPI)

The panamax bulk carrier market saw mixed activity this week, largely influenced by multiple global holidays. In the Atlantic basin, fresh demand was limited, but the relatively low number of available panamax bulk carriers allowed rates to remain stable for the few Transatlantic and Fronthaul fixtures that materialized. A scrubber-fitted 82K DWT kamsarmax bulk carrier delivered in Spain secured $17,750 for a voyage via Colombia East Coast to China. South America saw little deviation, though panamax bulk carrier rates began to come under pressure for end-May arrivals in Asia, with only sporadic fixtures reported. In Asia, market momentum was hampered by holidays despite stronger coal demand from Indonesia and Australia. Indonesian panamax bulk carrier round coal voyages were the most active, starting the week around $11,500 but falling to approximately $10,850 by Friday. Forward Freight Agreement market support remained limited, and there was little period activity overall. However, an 82K DWT kamsarmax bulk carrier delivered in China was fixed at $12,000 for an 8 month period at the beginning of the week.

Ultramax/Supramax Bulk Carrier Market – Baltic Supramax Index (BSI)

The ultramax bulk carrier market remained muted over the course of the week, mainly due to the widespread May Day holidays. In the Atlantic basin, minimal fresh inquiry was seen from both the U.S. Gulf and the Continent, although the South Atlantic displayed some positional strength. From the U.S. Gulf, a 55K DWT supramax bulk carrier was reported fixed for a voyage from NOLA to Colombia East Coast at approximately $9,500. In South America, a 63K DWT ultramax bulk carrier was fixed for a delivery Argentina to China trip at $13,750 plus $375,000 ballast bonus. In the Pacific basin, sentiment remained under pressure as Indonesian demand slowed. A 57K DWT supramax bulk carrier fixed delivery Indonesia to South China at around $9,500. From the north, a 63K DWT ultramax bulk carrier was fixed delivery West Coast Canada for a voyage to East Coast India at about $13,500 plus $370,000 ballast bonus. The Indian Ocean market showed mild activity, with a 57K DWT supramax bulk carrier fixed delivery West Coast India to China at approximately $10,000, while a 63K DWT ultramax bulk carrier fixed delivery UAE for redelivery Bangladesh at $18,000.

Handysize Bulk Carrier Market – Baltic Handysize Index (BHSI)

The handysize bulk carrier sector faced a difficult week as rates softened across both Atlantic and Pacific regions. In the Continent and Mediterranean, limited cargo availability against available handysize bulk carrier tonnage kept rates largely flat. A 36K DWT handysize bulk carrier open in Spain was fixed for a delivery via Morocco to redelivery Guinea carrying gypsum at $9,000. The South Atlantic was comparatively firmer, supported by steady fundamentals, with transatlantic cargoes being the main driver. A 36K DWT handysize bulk carrier fixed delivery South Brazil for a voyage via Argentina to redelivery Algeria at $17,000. In the U.S. Gulf, sentiment remained weak due to a growing handysize bulk carrier tonnage list, further exerting pressure on rates. In Asia, conditions remained quiet as tonnage levels rose in Southeast Asia and the North Pacific, keeping rates stable. A 38K DWT handysize bulk carrier was fixed for a voyage via East Australia to Japan with clean cargo at $14,500.