Ore Shipping

22-October-2025

Iron ore futures traded in a narrow band on Tuesday as market participants shifted their attention to a key meeting of China’s top political leadership, which will set the course for the nation’s economic agenda over the coming five years. The closed-door gathering of the Communist Party leadership, which began on Monday and will last four days, is expected to conclude with a broad outline of future policy direction. However, the complete economic framework and specific development objectives are not anticipated to be released until March 2026. The meeting takes place amid continuing signs of weakness in China’s troubled property market, which has continued to restrain steel demand and, consequently, limited the outlook for iron ore consumption, a crucial raw material for steelmaking. The most-traded January iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) edged up 0.13% to close at $108.03 per metric ton during daytime trading. The benchmark November iron ore contract on the Singapore Exchange rose 0.41% to $103.95 per ton, rebounding modestly after reaching a low of $102.85 on 1 October 2025. Prices for other steelmaking materials were weaker, with coking coal declining 3.49% and coke dropping 2.73%. Steel contracts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange mostly slipped as sluggish demand persisted. Rebar decreased by 0.36%, hot-rolled coil dipped by 0.31%, wire rod slid by 0.51%, while stainless steel managed a slight gain of 0.44%.

21-October-2025

Iron ore futures retreated on Monday as a wave of disappointing economic data from China, the world’s largest consumer, heightened worries about weakening demand for the critical steelmaking ingredient. The most-traded January iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) ended daytime trading 0.58% lower at $107.68 per metric ton, extending recent losses. Consumption from downstream steel sectors proved softer than expected during September 2025, a month that typically marks the seasonal high point for steel use. Analysts anticipate that crude steel output will remain relatively subdued amid growing economic headwinds and persistent uncertainty. The benchmark November 2025 iron ore contract on the Singapore Exchange reversed early gains driven by a softer U.S. dollar, which typically boosts commodity buying power for non-dollar users. It settled 0.45% lower at $103.45 per ton after touching a session low of $103.25, its weakest since 9 October 2025. China’s economic growth is projected to have slowed to its lowest level in a year during Q3 2025, weighed down by an extended property downturn and ongoing trade frictions with the United States. A number of economic indicators—including real estate investment, new project launches, and construction activity—signaled continued weakness in steel demand, pushing iron ore prices lower. New home prices in China declined at their fastest rate in nearly a year in September 2025, deepening the drag of the property sector on overall economic momentum. The slowdown in housing demand contributed to a sharp contraction in China’s crude steel production, which slipped to its lowest level in 21 months. Coking coal and coke, both essential steelmaking materials, moved higher by 2.66% and 1.63%, respectively, as safety inspections in key mining regions fueled expectations of tighter near-term supply. Steel futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange traded narrowly throughout the session. Rebar dipped 0.03%, hot-rolled coil eased 0.12%, stainless steel slipped 0.16%, and wire rod fell 0.53%.

18-October-2025

Pilbara Ports recorded a combined throughput of 68.5 million tonnes (Mt) for September 2025, representing a 3% improvement compared with September 2024. The Port of Port Hedland registered a total throughput of 49.4 million tonnes (Mt), with iron ore exports contributing 48.6 million tonnes (Mt). This reflected a marginal 1% decline in overall volume compared to the same month last year. Imports at the Port of Port Hedland amounted to 214,000 tonnes, marking a 5% year-on-year decrease. The Port of Dampier handled a total of 15.1 million tonnes (Mt) during the month, maintaining parity with throughput levels achieved in September 2024. Imports passing through the Port of Dampier totalled 107,000 tonnes, down by 26% from the previous year. The Port of Ashburton achieved a throughput of 4.1 million tonnes (Mt), registering a remarkable 179% increase compared to September 2024. Overall throughput variations across Pilbara Ports are influenced by multiple factors, including shifting market dynamics, planned maintenance activities, and the changing requirements of port users and exporters.

17-October-2025

Dalian iron ore futures continued to decline on Thursday, falling to their lowest level in more than six weeks as traders grew increasingly cautious over the outlook for demand in top consumer China. The most-active January 2025 iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed daytime trading 0.89% lower at $108.56 per metric ton. On the Singapore Exchange, the benchmark November 2025 iron ore contract dipped only slightly, easing 0.02% to $105.1 per ton, with expectations of additional U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts helping to limit deeper losses. Market sentiment has shifted its attention back toward the potential weakening fundamentals of the steel sector as early signs of easing trade tensions between the United States and China emerged. Although iron ore inventories declined more than anticipated this week, traders still expect an eventual build-up in steel stockpiles over the coming weeks, which could dampen raw material demand. Additionally, weaker-than-expected credit growth in China has intensified concerns about the country’s economic resilience and the outlook for industrial demand. New bank lending in China increased at a slower pace than projected in September 2025, underscoring the challenges facing policymakers as they attempt to revive activity in the struggling property sector and tackle excess capacity within the industrial landscape. Fears of a renewed trade confrontation between the United States and China—fueled by a round of reciprocal port fee measures—have further undermined optimism for constructive talks between the two sides, eroding market sentiment and putting additional pressure on iron ore prices. Meanwhile, most steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange ended higher, with rebar up 0.16%, wire rod gaining 0.72%, and stainless steel advancing 0.48%, though hot-rolled coil edged down 0.19%. Other steelmaking materials also strengthened, as coking coal climbed 3.36% and coke rose 2.26% amid continued supply constraints.

9-September-2025

China’s iron ore imports edged higher in August 2025, rising 0.6% from July 2025, as cheaper prices spurred continuous buying and steelmakers stockpiled ahead of the seasonal surge in steel consumption expected in September 2025. The world’s biggest iron ore importer brought in 105.23 million metric tons during the month, keeping volumes above 100 million tons for the third month in a row. This was up from 104.62 million tons in July 2025 and represented a 3.8% increase compared with the 101.39 million tons recorded in August 2024. Softer iron ore prices through Q2 2025, with averages slipping below the psychologically important \$100 per ton mark, helped trigger renewed demand and supported heavy arrivals from June through August. Import levels in August 2025 were also lifted by steady hot metal production, a key barometer of ore demand. Average daily hot metal output was reported at 2.41 million tons, virtually unchanged from July 2025 but about 5% higher than in August 2024. Firm consumption pushed iron ore prices higher for a second consecutive month in August 2025. Restocking activity by steel mills, in anticipation of stronger seasonal demand in September 2025, further underpinned the elevated import levels. From January to August 2025, China imported a total of 801.62 million tons of iron ore, narrowing the year-to-date decline to 1.6%, compared with a 2.3% drop during the January-to-July period. On the export side, China’s steel shipments fell 3.4% month-on-month in August 2025 to 9.51 million tons. Year-to-date exports climbed to 77.49 million tons, up 10% from the same period in 2024, setting a record high for that stretch. Despite intensifying anti-dumping actions from countries such as Vietnam and South Korea, which accuse their industries of being harmed by an influx of inexpensive Chinese steel, China’s steel exports have remained unexpectedly strong throughout 2025.

22-August-2025

Iron ore futures bounced back on Thursday as production cuts imposed ahead of China’s upcoming military parade turned out to be less severe and of shorter duration than anticipated, easing fears over demand. The most-active January 2025 iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) ended daytime trading at $107.63 per metric ton. On the Singapore Exchange, the benchmark September 2025 iron ore contract climbed to $101.3 per metric ton. Both benchmarks had previously declined for six consecutive sessions through Wednesday, pressured by demand worries as steelmakers in Tangshan, China’s leading steel production hub, were ordered to scale back operations to improve air quality in Beijing for the 3 September 2025 parade marking the end of World War II. Analysts noted that since the duration of Tangshan’s output curbs is shorter than originally expected, the overall effect on demand will be limited. Hot metal production, a key indicator of iron ore consumption, is projected to remain steady this week, providing additional support to prices, one analyst said under condition of anonymity because he is not authorised to speak publicly. However, crude steel output across China’s ten largest steelmaking provinces and autonomous regions still slipped 3.3% year-on-year between January and July 2025. Other steelmaking inputs on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) weakened, with coking coal down 1.5% and coke slipping 0.95%. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, steel contracts also retreated, with rebar dipping 0.03%, hot-rolled coil falling 0.44%, wire rod easing 0.15%, and stainless steel declining 0.27%.

22-August-2025

Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange stood at $9,690 a metric ton in official open-outcry trading after hitting $9,670 on Wednesday, its lowest level since 7 August 2025. The decline was attributed to investor caution ahead of the Jackson Hole meeting, where speeches are expected to shape sentiment, and to growing risk aversion reflected in weaker technology stocks. Market odds of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month eased slightly to 79%, lending modest support to the dollar as attention remained on whether Jerome Powell would counter expectations for a September cut. A stronger U.S. dollar makes dollar-denominated metals more costly for holders of other currencies, while interest rate expectations are crucial for industrial metals as their demand depends heavily on economic growth. Offering some support to the metals market, data released Thursday showed euro zone businesses recorded an increase in new orders in August 2025 for the first time since May 2024, driving overall activity to its fastest expansion in 15 months. Additional support came from supply factors after Chilean copper giant Codelco announced it would reduce its 2025 production guidance following an accident at its flagship El Teniente mine that cut output by 33,000 tons. Back in March 2025, Codelco had projected annual production between 1.37 million and 1.4 million tons. Among other base metals, aluminium slipped to $2,571 a ton in official trading, zinc fell to 2,768, lead declined to $1,969, tin dropped to $33,450, and nickel weakened to $14,950.

21-August-2025

Chilean miner giant Codelco will reduce its 2025 production guidance after an accident at its flagship El Teniente mine cut 33,000 metric tons from the site’s output. Chilean miner giant Codelco’s El Teniente mine is now projected to produce 316,000 tons this year. The shortfall equates to a $340 million loss from lost output, exceeding the $300 million Chilean miner giant Codelco initially estimated last week based on expected losses of 20,000 to 30,000 tons. The 31 July 2025 accident, which occurred near the new Andesita section of El Teniente’s extensive underground tunnel system, tragically killed six workers and forced Chilean miner giant Codelco to suspend operations for several days. Chilean miner giant Codelco confirmed that the Andesita section will only reopen once the internal investigation is complete. The miner, which was scheduled to release results on 1 August 2025, postponed its announcement in the wake of the incident. Despite the setback, Chilean miner giant Codelco reaffirmed its long-term target of producing 1.7 million tons of copper annually by 2030. In March 2025, Chilean miner giant Codelco announced a production outlook of 1.37 million to 1.4 million metric tons for 2025, slightly higher than its 2024 output. Chilean miner giant Codelco, founded in 1976 following the nationalisation of Chile’s copper industry, is the world’s largest copper producer and a cornerstone of Chile’s economy, contributing around 10% of global copper supply and playing a critical role in meeting demand for clean energy technologies such as electric vehicles and renewable energy infrastructure. With operations spanning key mines such as Chuquicamata, El Teniente, Radomiro Tomic, and Andina, Chilean miner giant Codelco is also undertaking one of the mining industry’s most ambitious investment programmes, with over $40 billion committed to structural projects aimed at modernising operations, extending mine life, and ensuring long-term copper output stability.

26-July-2025

Iron ore futures recorded a fifth straight weekly gain despite an early decline on Friday, as mounting port inventories and weaker global steel production exerted downward pressure on prices, with the most-traded September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) closing daytime trade 1.11% lower at \$112.01 per metric ton, though still rising nearly 1% over the week, while the benchmark August contract on the Singapore Exchange fell 2% to \$102.95 per ton but advanced 2.16% for the week; global steel production declined 5.8% year-on-year in June, with China’s crude steel output falling 9.2% during the same period, and total iron ore inventories at Chinese ports rising 0.11% from the previous week to 131 million tons as of 25 July 2025, while hot metal output dipped 0.1% week-on-week, though the operating rate of blast furnaces in China rose to 83.46%, up 0.31 percentage points from the prior week; despite a slowdown in the growth rate of steel demand across the manufacturing sector, iron ore prices are expected to remain supported, with traders closely watching next week’s Politburo meeting that is expected to shape economic policy for the remainder of 2025; other steelmaking raw materials on the Dalian Commodity Exchange surged, with coking coal and coke climbing 7.98% and 2.38% respectively, while steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange also posted gains, with rebar up 2.32%, hot-rolled coil rising 1.98%, wire rod increasing 1.55%, and stainless steel edging up 0.93%.

25-July-2025

Dalian iron ore futures closed lower on Thursday as growing supply from major miners Vale and Fortescue, combined with increasing steel inventories at Chinese mills, weighed on sentiment, with the most-traded September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) ending daytime trade down 0.55% at \$113.40 per metric ton, while the benchmark August iron ore contract on the Singapore Exchange rose 0.44% to \$104.9 per ton; pressure on Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) prices followed a 3.7% year-on-year increase in Q2 2025 production reported by Brazil’s Vale and record-high Q4 2024 shipments at lower costs announced by Australia’s Fortescue, both exceeding analyst expectations, while daily steel output from major Chinese steel producers increased by 2.1% month-on-month and mill inventories rose 3.9%, with China’s steel billet exports reaching 4.72 million tons between January and May 2025, nearly matching the total volume exported in all of 2024; despite bearish supply factors, overall market sentiment remained supported by infrastructure optimism after China confirmed plans to build the world’s largest hydropower dam, which provided a boost to steel prices; on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE), steelmaking raw materials continued to rally, with coking coal and coke gaining 7.97% and 1.97% respectively, driven by tightening coal supply amid China’s production control measures in key mining provinces; meanwhile, steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange posted mixed results, with rebar and hot-rolled coil both rising approximately 0.35%, while stainless steel declined 0.08% and wire rod fell 1.22%.

25-June-2025

Iron ore futures halted a three-day advance on Tuesday due to an improving supply outlook from leading producer Australia, although steady steel demand in China helped soften the decline, with the most-traded September 2025 iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) settling at $97.97 a metric ton during daytime trading, while the benchmark July 2025 iron ore contract on the Singapore Exchange fell 0.71% to $93.2 a ton, as Rio Tinto, the world’s largest iron ore producer, entered into a joint venture with Hancock Prospecting to develop the Hope Downs 2 project in Western Australia, which will feature two iron ore pits with a combined annual production capacity of 31 million metric tons according to Rio Tinto, and in parallel, iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil increased by 8.8% week-on-week for the period 16–22 June 2025, marking the highest weekly volume since June 2024, while hot metal production—a key indicator of iron ore demand—rose 0.24% from the previous week to 2.422 million tons as of 20 June 2025, yet the steel market is beginning to reflect expectations of weakening seasonal demand, with other steelmaking raw materials on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) also declining, as coking coal and coke prices dropped 1.94% and 2.03% respectively, and key steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange lost ground, with rebar and hot-rolled coil both down around 0.5%, wire rod declining 0.9%, and stainless steel edging lower by 0.28%.

24-June-2025

Most metals on the London Metals Exchange (LME) and Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) moved in tight ranges on Tuesday as traders remained cautious after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, with the London Metals Exchange (LME) three-month copper rising slightly by 0.04% to $9,671.5 per metric ton and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) most-traded copper contract gaining 0.09% to $10,920.74 per metric ton, while broader commodity markets reflected a wait-and-see sentiment amid ongoing uncertainty in the 2025 trading environment; the U.S. dollar weakened and oil prices fell to their lowest level in over a week, easing supply concerns and making dollar-denominated metals more attractive to non-U.S. currency holders, as London Metals Exchange (LME) aluminium retreated 0.77% to $2,568 per metric ton after hitting a three-month high on Monday, zinc declined 0.37% to $2,677 per metric ton, tin edged down 0.13% to $32,650 per metric ton, lead slipped 0.05% to $2,002 per metric ton, and nickel advanced 0.21% to $14,835 per metric ton.

23-June-2025

Aluminium prices climbed to their highest levels in three months on Monday after U.S. airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities heightened concerns about rising energy prices and potential supply disruptions from the Middle East, where energy costs can account for 40-45% of aluminium smelting expenses in some regions; fears of escalating conflict and impacts on oil and gas supply intensified as U.S. President Donald Trump warned of further military action unless a peace deal with Israel is achieved, pushing benchmark aluminium up 1.3% to $2,584 per metric ton after reaching $2,654.50, its highest since 21 March 2025; with Middle Eastern countries producing nearly 9% of the world’s aluminium, any closure of the Strait of Hormuz could affect shipments and raw material imports like bauxite and alumina, further tightening global supply; meanwhile, in the London Metals Exchange (LME), market attention shifted to large holdings in cash copper contracts and warrants, with one company controlling over 90% of the positions, driving the cash copper premium over the three-month forward to $340 per ton, the highest since October 2022 and up sharply from $3 just a month earlier, a situation exacerbated by falling copper inventories in LME-approved warehouses and increased exports to the U.S., where prices have surged following President Trump’s directive to investigate possible copper import tariffs, prompting the LME to implement restrictions on large positions in near-term contracts on Friday; elsewhere, three-month copper rose 0.1% to $9,641 per ton, lead increased 0.8% to $2,009, tin dipped 0.2% to $32,615, nickel declined 1.5% to $14,785, and zinc, whose production is energy-intensive, gained 1.8% to $2,677 per ton.

20-June-2025

China’s iron ore imports are on track to post their strongest monthly performance in 2025 this June, reflecting a notable resilience that contrasts with the weakening domestic steel sector, as the country, which consumes roughly 75% of global seaborne iron ore, is estimated to import nearly 110 million metric tons, with current projections at 109.56 million tons, representing an increase of about 11% from May 2025’s official figure of 98.13 million tons and marking the highest level since December 2024’s 112.49 million tons, which was the second-largest monthly total on record, prompting questions about why Chinese steel mills and traders are increasing iron ore purchases despite the steel sector’s sluggish performance amid domestic headwinds and global challenges; a key reason appears to be the recent drop in prices, as spot iron ore fell to an eight-month low in early June 2025, while futures on the Singapore Exchange have trended lower since peaking at $107.81 per ton on 12 February 2025, dropping to $94.17 per ton on 18 June 2025 before a slight rebound to $94.30, though the June price slump is too recent to directly affect this month’s import volumes due to lead times between purchase and delivery, but the downward trend that began in mid-May 2025 may have encouraged increased buying activity; another contributing factor is restocking, as inventories had been falling, with port stockpiles hitting a 16-month low of 132 million tons by 6 June 2025 before rising to 133.4 million tons by 13 June 2025, still 9% lower than the 146.6 million tons recorded during the same week in 2024, and while some room for further inventory buildup remains, concerns persist about how long iron ore imports can remain strong if the steel market continues to weaken, with May 2025 steel output declining 6.9% year-on-year to 85.55 million tons and cumulative output for the first five months falling 1.7% to 431.63 million tons, with full-year production expected to drop 4% from 2024 levels due to ongoing struggles in the key property sector, which has shown little improvement despite policy stimulus, as evidenced by a 0.2% month-on-month decline in new home prices in May 2025 following a flat April, along with growing pressure on the export-focused manufacturing sector as the United States imposes higher tariffs, with President Donald Trump signaling potential levies of up to 55% on all imports from China, while domestic steel prices have also been weakening, with rebar contracts on the Shanghai Exchange ending at $414.74 per ton on Wednesday, and although steel exports remain a bright spot, rising 9.9% year-on-year in May 2025 to 10.58 million tons and up 8.9% to a record 48.47 million tons for the January–May period, there is increasing risk that such export strength could trigger more trade protectionism from countries such as the United States and India.

20-June-2025

Iron ore futures prices reversed a five-day decline on Thursday, supported by increased steel production in top consumer China, although the gains were limited due to the ongoing crisis in China’s property sector that continues to suppress demand expectations, as the most-traded September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) rose by 0.43% to $97.07 per metric ton and the benchmark July 2025 iron ore contract on the Singapore Exchange climbed 0.6% to $92.95 per ton, with daily combined consumption of iron ore sintering fines rising 2.4% week-on-week to 609,300 tons—the highest daily average recorded in the last seven months—as steel mills ramped up feedstock usage to maintain elevated production levels, but downstream demand has entered the traditional off-season, resulting in continued inventory accumulation, with total iron ore stockpiles at Chinese ports increasing by approximately 1.06% week-on-week to 133.4 million tons as of 13 June 2025, while weakening real estate sales and persistent negative sentiment in the property sector further cloud the outlook, as new home prices declined again in May 2025, extending a prolonged two-year stagnation, and demand for new homes is projected to stay significantly below the 2017 peak for years, signaling a drawn-out property slump in the world’s second-largest economy, with any substantial increase in steel and iron ore demand unlikely until construction activity meaningfully rebounds, and meanwhile, other steelmaking raw materials on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) eased slightly, with coking coal and coke falling 0.13% and 0.11% respectively, while steel products on the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw moderate gains, with rebar and hot-rolled coil both up 0.13%, stainless steel rising 0.68%, and wire rod increasing 0.12%.

19-June-2025

Iron ore futures extended their losing streak to a fifth straight session on Wednesday, pressured by waning demand in China, the world’s largest consumer of the steelmaking material. The most-active September 2025 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) ended daytime trading down 0.5% at $96.79 per metric ton, while the benchmark July 2025 contract on the Singapore Exchange slipped 0.41% to $92.4 per ton. Prices dropped below $93 per ton as Chinese demand remained weak amid a prolonged downturn in the country’s property sector. Home prices in China declined again in May 2025, continuing a two-year stagnation. Steel production from Chinese blast furnace mills fell for the fifth consecutive week from 6 to 12 June 2025, with maintenance stoppages cited as the main cause. Construction activity has slowed due to heavy rainfall in southern China and high temperatures in the north. Efforts by Chinese authorities to reduce steel industry overcapacity are starting to show results, with crude steel output falling 6.9% year-on-year to 86.55 million tons in May 2025. Meanwhile, total iron ore inventories at Chinese ports rose by 1.06% from the previous week to 133.4 million tons as of 13 June 2025. On the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE), performance was mixed for other steelmaking materials, with coking coal down 0.57% and coke up 0.62%. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, steel benchmarks recorded gains, with rebar and stainless steel each rising around 0.1%, hot-rolled coil up 0.32%, and wire rod increasing by 0.43%.

18-June-2025

Dalian iron ore remained largely unchanged on Tuesday as traders weighed mixed macroeconomic signals against continued strong steel demand from top consumer China, with the most-traded September 2025 iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) closing the daytime session flat at $97.29 per metric ton, while the benchmark July 2025 iron ore contract on the Singapore Exchange dropped 1.24% to $92.9 per ton following data that revealed a decline in China’s steel production, which fell 6.9% year-on-year in May 2025 to 86.55 million tons; additionally, new home prices in China declined in May 2025, extending a two-year period of stagnation and highlighting persistent difficulties in the property sector despite multiple policy interventions, while factory output growth hit a six-month low, although retail sales improved slightly, offering temporary optimism during a delicate phase in China’s trade relationship with the United States, and despite peak blast furnace output, high profit margins are discouraging steel mills from curbing production, with approximately 60% of blast-furnace mills in China reporting positive margins as of 12 June 2025, while iron ore port arrivals decreased 8.62% week-on-week to 23.85 million tons as of 13 June 2025, and other steelmaking raw materials on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) gained, with coking coal and coke rising by 0.7% and 1%, respectively, whereas steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange traded mostly flat, with rebar inching up 0.17% and hot-rolled coil increasing 0.13%, while wire rod and stainless steel each declined by nearly 0.5%.

13-June-2025

Iron ore futures prices declined on Thursday as investors awaited further clarity on trade negotiations between the United States and China, despite a positive tone from U.S. President Donald Trump, with the most-traded September 2025 iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) closing 0.21% lower at $98.05 per metric ton and the benchmark July 2025 iron ore on the Singapore Exchange slipping 0.53% to $94.6 per ton; President Trump stated on Wednesday that he was very happy with a trade deal that reestablished a fragile truce in the ongoing U.S.–China trade conflict, while China’s foreign ministry said on Thursday that the country will always honour its commitments, though without offering specifics; meanwhile, steel output has been falling for two consecutive weeks, pointing to weakening demand for raw materials like iron ore, and other steelmaking ingredients on the Dalian Commodity Exchange also fell, with coking coal down 2.79% and coke declining 1.77%; most steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange moved lower amid subdued demand, as rebar dropped 0.7%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.87%, wire rod lost 0.75%, while stainless steel was the only gainer, rising 0.48%; apparent consumption of five major steel products—rebar, wire rod, hot-rolled coil, cold-rolled coil, and medium plate—fell by 1.6% for the week ending 12 June 2025, following a 3.5% decrease the previous week.

11-June-2025

A new element with the potential to disrupt the current global iron ore and dry bulk market landscape is emerging, as the long-anticipated Simandou iron ore project in Guinea is set to alter global supply dynamics and maritime trade patterns. With reserves surpassing 2 billion tonnes and exceptionally high iron content averaging 65–68% Fe, the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea is regarded as one of the world’s most valuable undeveloped iron ore sources. Scheduled to commence shipments in Q4 2025, the Simandou iron ore project could serve as a structural inflection point for both the commodity markets and seaborne logistics. Simandou’s ore grade is particularly notable in the global iron ore market, offering a cleaner and more efficient raw material for steelmaking. This aligns with the intensifying environmental goals in China, where steel manufacturers are increasingly required to lower emissions. The high purity of Simandou’s iron ore makes it ideally suited for electric arc furnaces, which produce less carbon than conventional steelmaking processes. As China accelerates its transition toward decarbonization and greater scrap-based steel production, demand for high-grade iron ore is expected to increase, placing Simandou in a strategically favorable position. Once fully operational, the project aims to deliver 120 million tonnes annually—accounting for roughly 6–10% of the global seaborne iron ore trade, depending on prevailing market conditions. While this volume remains modest relative to Australia’s dominant 900 million tonnes of annual iron ore exports, Simandou introduces a credible new competitor, especially as several Australian and Brazilian iron ore mines approach depletion. The majority of Simandou’s iron ore output is anticipated to be shipped to China, the leading global importer of iron ore, driven not only by China’s demand for steel but also by the involvement of Chinese firms in the project’s ownership. Consequently, the Simandou project is expected to have a pronounced impact on traditional Brazil-to-China and Australia-to-China iron ore trade lanes. Importantly, Simandou’s location in West Africa (WAFR) results in longer shipping distances to China compared to Australia, with significant implications for the global freight market. An increased flow of iron ore from Guinea to China would elevate tonne-miles—a key metric in the dry bulk shipping industry. While the Australia-to-China route is comparatively short, the addition of volumes from Guinea introduces longer, intercontinental journeys, which could constrain bulk carrier availability and contribute to higher freight rates. To facilitate this shift, Simandou’s development plan includes major infrastructure investments, such as a multi-hundred-kilometer railway and a new export port designed to accommodate heavy volumes of iron ore as well as general cargo and passenger traffic, thereby enhancing Guinea’s overall transport network. Nonetheless, political risk remains a critical concern. Guinea’s military-led government has adopted a more assertive stance in managing natural resources, revoking exploration licenses and engaging in disputes with foreign stakeholders. This interventionist approach raises concerns about operational continuity and whether production objectives can be met without disruption. Still, if Simandou successfully ramps up within 30 months of initiating production, it could significantly reconfigure global iron ore exporter market shares. In essence, the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea is far more than a typical mining venture; it represents a transformative supply-side development with broad implications. Simandou’s high-grade ore aligns with the global movement toward greener steel production, while its geographic position introduces a sustained increase in tonne-mile demand. Its cumulative impact on trade flows, freight market dynamics, and the competitive landscape among incumbent exporters makes the Simandou project a highly consequential development to monitor in the coming years.

11-June-2025

Iron ore futures prices extended losses for a second consecutive session on Tuesday, weighed down by expectations of rising supply, although strong demand from top consumer China and optimism surrounding potential improvement in China-US trade relations helped limit the decline. The most-traded September 2025 iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) ended daytime trading down 0.85% at $97.16 per metric ton. The benchmark July 2025 iron ore contract on the Singapore Exchange dropped 0.63% to $94.1 per ton, after earlier touching $93.9—the lowest since 3 June 2025. Shipments of iron ore from leading suppliers Australia and Brazil rose by nearly 2% from the previous week to 29.19 million tons as of 8 June 2025, marking the highest weekly volume since December 2024. June 2025 iron ore imports are projected to increase as mills boost their use of imported cargoes due to price advantages, while miners are expected to accelerate shipments by the end of the month to meet Q2 targets. Hot metal output, a key indicator of iron ore demand, averaged 2.42 million tons per day as of 5 June 2025. Investors are also hopeful for improved U.S.-China relations as another round of trade talks takes place in London on Tuesday. Other steelmaking inputs on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) posted gains, with coking coal and coke rising by 0.51% and 0.48%, respectively. Steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed limited movement, with rebar and hot-rolled coil largely unchanged, wire rod edging down 0.12%, and stainless steel falling 1.46%.

10-June-2025

China’s iron ore imports in May 2025 fell short of expectations, declining by 4.9% from April 2025, as steel mills showed restraint in purchasing seaborne cargoes amid forecasts of seasonally weaker steel demand. China, the world’s largest consumer of iron ore, imported 98.13 million metric tons in May 2025, missing analyst projections which had anticipated volumes exceeding 100 million tons, and marking a decrease from 103.14 million tons in April 2025. The lower-than-expected import volume in May 2025 was partly attributed to some steelmakers opting to source from domestic ports where supply was more readily available and pricing more competitive. The decline in China’s iron ore imports led to a 2.8% month-on-month drop in portside inventory, which stood at 133 million tons as of 30 May 2025. Although May 2025 iron ore import figures were below expectations, they remained relatively robust due to ongoing restocking activities by mills amid declining port inventories. Over the first five months of 2025, China’s total iron ore imports dropped 5.2% year-on-year to 486.41 million tons. Meanwhile, China’s exports of steel products in May 2025 increased by 1.15% from April 2025 to reach a seven-month high of 10.58 million tons. Analysts noted that the continued acceleration of steel product shipments, driven by concerns over potential tariff hikes weakening demand, was supporting export growth. For the January–May 2025 period, China’s steel product exports surged 8.9% year-on-year to a record 48.47 million tons. Conversely, China’s steel imports declined 24.5% year-on-year in May 2025 to 481,000 tons.

5-June-2025

Iron ore futures prices rebounded on Wednesday as investors closed out short positions to secure profits, though the upside was capped by expectations of seasonally weaker demand; the most-traded September 2025 iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) ended daytime trading 1.37% higher at $97.98 per metric ton, recovering from a nearly two-month low hit the previous day, while the benchmark July 2025 iron ore contract on the Singapore Exchange rose 0.95% to $95.2 per ton; the recent sharp declines in futures brought prices below spot levels, suggesting limited near-term downside and encouraging short sellers to unwind positions, especially with hot metal output projected to remain steady around 2.4 million tons in June 2025, and further significant declines likely only if market fundamentals deteriorate further; average daily hot metal output, a key measure of iron ore demand, slipped 0.7% from the previous week to 2.42 million tons as of 30 May 2025, though this remains 2.6% higher than the same period a year earlier; the rebound in iron ore was also partially driven by a rally in coal and coke prices, with coking coal surging 7.19% and coke climbing 5.72% after both touched nearly nine-year lows on Tuesday, supported by expectations of tightening supply; steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange also advanced, with rebar gaining 1.57%, hot-rolled coil rising 1.61%, wire rod increasing 1.14%, and stainless steel edging up 0.59%.

4-June-2025

The growth of India’s steel sector is often promoted as a new opportunity for iron ore miners amid slowing Chinese demand, yet the actual impact may not match the expectations, as India’s current steel-making capacity stands at around 200 million metric tons per year with a target to reach 300 million by 2030, raising questions about how much of this increased iron ore requirement can be met by domestic mining; while India, the fourth-largest iron ore producer, achieved a record 289 million tons of output in the fiscal year ending March 2025—up from 277 million tons in 2024—this still falls short of the estimated 460 million tons needed to support a 300-million-ton steel industry, assuming the standard 1.6 tons of ore per ton of steel via the blast furnace/basic oxygen furnace method; the challenge is not just boosting output but also ensuring the infrastructure can support efficient transport of ore to steel plants, and although India has vast reserves and the potential to surpass China and Brazil in iron ore production, major increases in output by 2030 remain unlikely, with even Vedanta’s Sesa Goa Iron Ore facing limitations; the Indian Steel Association projects a shortfall of over 100 million tons in coming years, suggesting a sharp rise in imports will be necessary, especially as India, currently a net exporter of low-grade ore—primarily to China, which received 11.11 million of the 13.67 million tons exported in the first five months of 2025—has seen export volumes decline to a monthly average of 2.73 million tons from 3.13 million in 2024 and 3.70 million in 2023, while imports have surged to 4.57 million tons over the same period, putting India on pace to more than double its 2024 and 2023 import totals of around 6.7 million tons, though even reaching 10 million tons this year would still leave a significant gap to the 100 million tons projected for 2030; ultimately, the outcome will hinge on the pace of steel capacity expansion—India has 20 million tons currently under construction and another 155 million planned—and how effectively domestic miners scale output, but for now, trends suggest a continued decline in low-grade exports and a gradual increase in higher-grade imports.

3-June-2025

Shipowners aiming to gain a competitive advantage in bulk carrier trading may find a strategic opportunity in the bauxite trade, as Guinea’s military government recently revoked 51 mining licenses across bauxite, gold, diamond, graphite, and iron sectors, citing violations of the national mining code, reflecting a broader surge in resource nationalism across sub-Saharan Africa where governments are increasingly seeking to retain a larger share of resource-generated revenues, thereby elevating investment and supply chain risks while asserting stronger control over mineral assets. Since 2015, Guinea has rapidly grown into a major bauxite exporter, driven by foreign investments in infrastructure, and the shift has been further accelerated by Indonesia’s 2023 ban on raw bauxite exports, which redirected buyers to alternative sources like Australia and West Africa. Seaborne bauxite trade has experienced notable expansion over the past three decades, with compound annual growth rates rising from 2.5% (1996–2005) to 6.9% (2006–2015) and reaching 9.6% from 2016 to 2025, largely fueled by China’s rising aluminum production to support its booming construction, infrastructure, and consumer sectors, while the global push toward decarbonization has further driven demand for aluminum in electric vehicles, solar energy systems, and sustainable architecture. Unlike other dry bulk commodities facing stagnant or declining growth, bauxite is expected to be the standout performer among minor bulks in 2025, with global trade growing by 12% in 2024 and projected to expand another 9% in 2025 to an all-time high of 205 million tons, led by strong Guinean exports to China, which are forecast to increase by 9% in 2025 and 6% in 2026, in support of the latter’s rapidly scaling EV industry and dominance in solar panel manufacturing. China’s emergence as a major aluminum exporter, particularly in aluminum wire and cable, is further reinforced by a global trend toward substituting copper with aluminum. However, the anticipated growth in Guinea’s alumina refining capacity—highlighted by China’s State Power Investment Corporation’s plan to build the country’s largest alumina refinery—suggests a gradual pivot from raw bauxite exports to in-country processing, a shift that, along with government actions like the recent license cancellations, could reshape trade flows and affect investor sentiment, underscoring the increasingly complex interaction between political agendas, industrial strategies, and global commodity markets.

2-June-2025

Iron ore futures prices declined on Friday and ended the week in negative territory amid weakening demand in China for the steelmaking raw material, as traders prepared for ongoing trade-related uncertainties. The most-traded September 2025 iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) fell 0.43% to $97.65 per metric ton, down 2.84% over the week, while the benchmark June 2025 contract on the Singapore Exchange slipped 0.66% to $96.25 a ton, registering a weekly loss of 1.91%. Hot metal output, a key indicator of iron ore consumption, dropped for the third consecutive week, down approximately 0.7% to 2.42 million tons as of 30 May 2025. With seasonal steel demand already past its peak, further declines in construction material demand are expected, although steady steel mill profits continue to lend some support to iron ore prices. China’s manufacturing activity likely contracted for the second month in a row during May 2025. In the U.S., President Donald Trump’s tariffs were temporarily reinstated on Thursday by a federal appeals court, reversing a trade court’s ruling from the previous day that had halted the broadest measures. Other steelmaking inputs on the DCE also retreated, with coking coal down 5.28% and coke falling 2.13%, while steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange moved sideways—rebar dipped 0.34%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.81%, wire rod inched up 0.12%, and stainless steel gained nearly 0.6%.

30-May-2025

Iron ore futures ended a four-day losing streak on Thursday, supported by improved market sentiment after a U.S. federal court blocked President Donald Trump’s tariffs from taking effect, with the most-traded September 2025 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) rising 1.29% to $98.31 per metric ton and the benchmark June 2025 contract on the Singapore Exchange gaining 0.95% to $97 per ton. The court ruled that Trump had exceeded his authority by imposing sweeping tariffs on imports from countries running trade surpluses with the U.S., including recent 25% duties on autos and steel, a decision that boosted investor confidence and opened the door to a short-term rebound in ferrous markets. Despite this, seasonal steel demand has already peaked, and construction material consumption is expected to decline as China approaches its June 2025 rainy season. Although authorities previously signaled a reduction in crude steel output this year, many traders and steelmakers doubt the cuts will be enforced amid improved profit margins. Meanwhile, other steelmaking inputs on the DCE weakened, with coking coal down 3.98% and coke down 1.62%, and following two rounds of price cuts in May 2025, the met coke market remains vulnerable to further declines if the broader ferrous sector remains soft. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, most steel benchmarks moved higher, with rebar up 0.47%, hot-rolled coil rising around 0.3%, wire rod gaining 0.9%, while stainless steel edged down 0.39%.

28-May-2025

Iron ore futures extended losses for a third consecutive session on Tuesday as renewed speculation surrounding crude steel production cuts in China, the world’s top consumer, continued to weigh on market sentiment amid persistent overcapacity issues; the most-traded September 2025 iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) dropped 1.76% to close at $97.16 per metric ton, while the benchmark June 2025 iron ore contract on the Singapore Exchange declined 0.95% to $96.15 per ton; concerns intensified as reports emerged that several steel mills in Shandong province had begun scaling back output, reinforcing fears of reduced iron ore demand at a time when China is aiming to curb the growth of its steel industry to address the long-standing supply-demand imbalance; despite these headwinds, China’s industrial profits posted a rebound in April according to official data, suggesting underlying economic resilience even as the country faces ongoing deflationary pressures and trade tensions with the United States; additional weakness was seen across other steelmaking raw materials on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE), with coking coal slipping 0.12% and coke down 0.94%, while steel futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange also recorded losses, with rebar falling 1.23%, hot-rolled coil down 1.33%, wire rod losing 0.34%, and stainless steel edging 0.19% lower.

27-May-2025

Iron ore futures prices declined on Monday, weighed down by sluggish steel consumption in China—the world’s largest consumer—and ongoing weakness in the country’s real estate sector, which further dampened market sentiment. The most-active September 2025 iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) closed daytime trading down 2.21% at $98.47 per metric ton, while the benchmark June 2025 contract on the Singapore Exchange slipped 1.09% to $97.05 per ton. Between 19 and 23 May 2025, Chinese import iron ore prices declined in both spot and futures markets, as hot metal production—a key indicator of iron ore demand—dropped 0.48% month-on-month to 2.4 million tons amid the seasonal slowdown in steel consumption. Despite still-elevated output levels, China’s construction and property sector continued to weigh heavily on domestic steel demand. Analysts expect the real estate downturn to persist through 2025, with home prices projected to fall nearly 5% and remain flat into 2026. Other steelmaking inputs on the DCE also weakened, with coking coal down 1.96% and coke falling 1.72%. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, steel benchmarks declined across the board: rebar fell 1.67%, hot-rolled coil dropped 2.03%, stainless steel edged down 0.04%, and wire rod plunged 2.58%.

23-May-2025

Iron ore futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) traded within a narrow range on Thursday as investors weighed steady demand from top consumer China against increased shipments from major producers Australia and Brazil, with the most-active September 2025 iron ore contract ending the daytime session 0.14% higher at $100.93 per metric ton, while the benchmark June 2025 contract on the Singapore Exchange slipped 0.56% to $99.25 per ton. Demand from end-users, particularly in the manufacturing sector, remained strong and continued to support steel consumption growth, as the utilisation rate of 104 electric furnaces rose 1.2% week-on-week to 40.4%, and daily scrap steel usage climbed 3.1% to 245,400 tons. Hot metal production, a key indicator of iron ore consumption, stayed high at 2.4477 million tons this week. Port inventory of imported iron ore across 47 Chinese ports decreased 1.74% week-on-week to 146.28 million tons. On the supply side, weekly iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil rose by 11.7% to reach 27.1 million tons. Other steelmaking materials on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) declined, with coking coal down 1.66% and coke falling 0.85%. China exported 447,800 tons of stainless steel in April 2025, reflecting a 14.1% year-on-year increase. Steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed limited movement, with hot-rolled coil edging up 0.09%, stainless steel rising 0.04%, rebar slipping 0.03%, and wire rod easing 0.06%.

22-May-2025

Iron ore futures climbed on Wednesday, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and steady demand for the steelmaking raw material, though gains were restricted by ongoing challenges in China’s property sector. The most-traded September 2025 iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) closed the daytime session 0.76% higher at $101.10 per metric ton, while the benchmark June 2025 iron ore contract on the Singapore Exchange rose 0.45% to $99.85 per ton. Demand continues to outperform expectations as steel mills maintain elevated production levels, with 60% of blast-furnace operations reporting profitability last week. A declining U.S. dollar, which extended its drop for a second day against major currencies, also provided support by making commodities priced in dollars more attractive to international buyers. Despite these positive drivers, market sentiment remained under pressure due to disappointing industrial output and retail sales figures from China, along with flat home prices. While a full recovery in China’s property market appears unlikely in the short to medium term, the pace of contraction has slowed, offering some optimism for steel demand as the spring construction season peaks ahead of the June 2025 rainy period. On the supply side, iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil surged 11.7% from the previous week, reaching 27.1 million tons. In contrast, other steelmaking materials on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) retreated, with coking coal down 0.36% and coke slipping 0.14%. Most steel futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw gains, with hot-rolled coil and wire rod rising 0.2%, stainless steel inching up 0.08%, and rebar dipping 0.07%.

21-May-2025

Iron ore futures prices saw a modest increase on Tuesday, supported by steady near-term demand for the steelmaking raw material, although gains were restrained by weaker economic indicators from China, the world’s top consumer, with the most-traded September 2025 iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) closing 0.28% higher at $100.39 per metric ton and the benchmark June 2025 contract on the Singapore Exchange rising 0.15% to $99.6 per ton; Chinese iron ore mining operations continued to ramp up last week, pushing average daily output of iron ore concentrate up by 2% week-on-week to 498,800 tons, while hot metal output—a key measure of iron ore demand—eased slightly by 0.35% month-on-month to 2.45 million tons, though output levels remain relatively elevated amid growing steel demand from the manufacturing sector; on the supply front, iron ore shipments from major exporters Australia and Brazil increased by 9.53% month-on-month to 33.48 million tons; however, sentiment was dampened by slowing growth in China’s industrial production and retail sales, coupled with ongoing stagnation in new home prices, while China’s crude steel output in April 2025 dropped 7% from March 2025, although production levels stayed comparatively high; equities in China and Hong Kong advanced broadly on Tuesday following a rate cut by Chinese authorities—the first since October 2024—aimed at supporting the economy; meanwhile, other steelmaking inputs on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) declined, with coking coal down 1.47% and coke falling 1.71%, and steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange weakened, as rebar slid nearly 0.6%, hot-rolled coil eased 0.37%, wire rod dipped 0.51%, and stainless steel lost 1%.

20-May-2025

Iron ore futures declined on Monday, weighed down by weaker-than-expected economic data from China—the world’s top consumer—and uncertain short-term demand for the steelmaking raw material, with the most-traded September 2025 iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closing daytime trade 0.89% lower at $100.15 per metric ton, while the benchmark June 2025 iron ore contract on the Singapore Exchange dropped 0.71% to $99.35 per ton; broadly, official data released Monday showed a slowdown in China’s industrial output and retail sales growth for April 2025, amid escalating trade tensions that risk undermining economic momentum, and property investment also fell by 10.3% year-on-year for the first four months of 2025, following a 9.9% decline in Q1 2025; China’s crude steel production in April 2025 dropped 7% from March 2025, though overall output remained relatively high, and hot metal production—a key indicator of iron ore demand—decreased by 8,700 tons to 2.45 million tons due to ongoing blast furnace maintenance; meanwhile, total iron ore inventories at Chinese ports increased by 0.26% week-on-week to 137 million tons as of 16 May 2025, yet the proportion of profitable blast-furnace steel mills in China continued to rise on a weekly basis as of 15 May 2025, supported by improving finished steel prices; elsewhere, other steelmaking inputs on the Dalian Commodity Exchange also declined, with coking coal and coke down 2.2% and 1.79% respectively, while steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell as rebar and hot-rolled coil each lost around 1%, wire rod declined nearly 2.7%, and stainless steel eased 0.42%.

13-May-2025

Iron ore futures rose on 12 May 2025 following an agreement between the United States and China to cut reciprocal tariffs and implement a 90-day suspension on new measures, which boosted market sentiment. The United States and China jointly announced that they had reached a deal to reduce reciprocal tariffs as both nations seek to resolve a trade war that has disrupted the global economy and caused volatility in financial markets. Under the agreement, the two countries will pause new measures for 90 days and lower tariffs by more than 100 percentage points to 10%. The most actively traded September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) closed the daytime session up 3.16% at $99.63 per metric ton, the highest level since 7 May 2025. On the Singapore Exchange, the benchmark June 2025 iron ore contract rose 2.9% to $99.75 per metric ton. The scale of the tariff reduction slightly exceeded market expectations and improved investor sentiment. Iron ore prices also gained support from relatively stable demand, with steel mills maintaining operations due to favorable profit margins. As of 8 May 2025, average daily hot metal output, a key indicator of iron ore demand, edged up 0.1% to 2.46 million tons. Market prices have been volatile due to concerns over potential US tariff increases and uncertainty surrounding China’s crude steel output reduction plans, which could affect iron ore consumption. Seaborne iron ore prices have declined by 11% from the year’s peak of $107 per ton recorded in February 2025. Other steelmaking materials on the Dalian Commodity Exchange also rebounded, with coking coal up 0.68% and coke up 0.75%, while steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange advanced as rebar gained 1.52%, hot-rolled coil increased 1.51%, wire rod rose 1.39%, and stainless steel climbed 1.34%.

9-May-2025

Iron ore prices fell on Thursday as iron ore traders assessed the likelihood of weakening demand amid renewed expectations of crude steel production cuts in China, the world’s largest consumer. The most-traded September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) ended daytime trading down 2.73% at $95.82 per metric ton, marking its lowest level since 11 April 2025. The benchmark June 2025 iron ore contract on the Singapore Exchange declined by 1.95% to $96.4 per ton. The renewed anticipation of steel production curbs is primarily driving market sentiment, with the decline in prices of steelmaking raw materials proving sharper than the fall in finished steel prices. In March 2025, China announced its intention to restructure the steel industry through production cuts, although it did not disclose specific details regarding timing or scale. This expectation has been reinforced by a recent statement from the steel association, and hot metal output is also projected to reach a near-term peak. Hot metal output, a product of blast furnaces, is widely used as an indicator of iron ore demand. Other steelmaking inputs on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) also dropped, with coking coal and coke falling by 2.13% and 2.25% respectively. Steel futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were similarly weaker, with rebar down 1.74%, hot-rolled coil down 1.18%, wire rod down 0.43%, and stainless steel down 0.31%. This overall softness in the ferrous market came despite China announcing a package of monetary stimulus measures on Wednesday, aimed at cushioning the economic impact of the trade conflict with the United States. The scale and nature of the stimulus suggest a readiness for a worst-case scenario in the ongoing USA-China trade talks, casting uncertainty over the prospects for resolution.

9-May-2025

China’s steel exports are expected to decline sharply in Q2 2025, potentially worsening the domestic supply glut, according to analysts and traders, as the ongoing US-China trade war and the rising tide of global protectionism constrain access to export markets. Shipments from the world’s largest steel producer and exporter in Q2 2025 are projected to decrease by as much as 20% compared to Q1 2025, with further deterioration anticipated later in 2025, placing Q2 2025 export levels below those of Q2 2024. Steel exports have suffered from a dual impact, as tariffs imposed by United States President Donald Trump have disrupted the transshipment trade—where Chinese steel is rerouted through third countries to the United States—and key markets such as South Korea and Vietnam have implemented their own duties to prevent steel from being redirected and dumped into their domestic markets. Although Chinese steel producers may explore alternative destinations such as the Middle East, Africa, and South America, no individual market has the capacity to absorb the large volumes of Chinese steel. The increase in steel exports had previously helped offset weak demand from China’s struggling property sector, and any decline will push excess steel back into the domestic market, exerting downward pressure on prices, reducing steelmaker margins, and weakening their demand for inputs such as iron ore. Steel exports in Q1 2025 had reached the highest level since 2016, driven by mills rushing to export before the anticipated imposition of tariffs. While the steel industry had expected that near-record export volumes would eventually provoke a policy backlash, the scale of protectionist measures resulting from the US-China trade conflict has taken many by surprise. China’s steel exports are under intense pressure, and increased domestic retention of steel would further aggravate oversupply. One major Chinese steel exporter reported a 20% to 30% drop in overseas orders in April 2025 compared to March 2025. There are also growing concerns that the US-China trade war could expand into steel-intensive sectors such as electric vehicles and household appliances, undermining another critical demand source beyond the property sector. The impact of such a slowdown typically takes time to filter through to the upstream steel supply chain and is expected to become evident in Q2 2025 data, coinciding with a seasonal weakening in domestic demand and amplifying the existing oversupply challenge.

6-May-2025

Copper prices moved higher on Tuesday, supported by renewed hopes for progress in U.S.-China trade talks, with benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rising 0.8% to $9,441 per metric ton after China’s Commerce Ministry said it was considering a U.S. proposal to hold discussions regarding President Donald Trump’s 145% tariffs; the ministry noted that the U.S. initiated contact and that China remained open to dialogue, raising the possibility of easing trade tensions. Despite this, uncertainty surrounds the negotiation process, and investors remain cautious about potential negative effects on global economic growth and the resulting impact on metals demand. The U.S. economy contracted in the first quarter of 2025 for the first time in three years, largely due to a surge in imports ahead of the tariff hike, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected only 1.8% GDP growth for the U.S. this year. Other base metals also advanced on the LME, with aluminum up 0.3% to $2,438 a ton, zinc gaining 1.8% to $2,654, lead climbing 0.3% to $1,939, tin rising 3.4% to $31,750, and nickel increasing 1.2% to $15,665 a ton, while the most-traded copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) edged up 0.1% to $10,759.84 per ton.

1-May-2025

Iron ore futures slipped, marking a third consecutive monthly decline as expectations of steel output cuts in top consumer China and reduced demand ahead of the Labour Day holiday weighed on the market; the most-traded September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) ended daytime trading down 0.78% at $96.81 per metric ton, falling 3.96% over April 2025, while the benchmark May contract on the Singapore Exchange dropped 0.67% to $97.80 per ton, down 3.16% for the month. Despite no formal mandate, senior Chinese industry officials suggested steel production cuts are likely, putting pressure on prices of steelmaking raw materials, and last week, China called for coordinated efforts to reduce output due to mounting pressure on its steel sector amid continued economic weakness and rising trade tensions. A nationwide steel production cut is expected in the third and fourth quarters of 2025. Iron ore extended its losses as sentiment softened ahead of the holiday, with Chinese steel mills scaling back restocking activities; financial markets in China will be closed from May 1 to 5 for Labour Day, with trading set to resume on May 6, 2025. In broader economic signals, a factory survey released Wednesday showed China’s manufacturing sector contracted in April at its fastest pace in 16 months, following the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariff package, which ended a brief recovery period. Other steelmaking inputs on the Dalian Commodity Exchange also declined, with coking coal down 0.59% and coke dropping 0.97%, while steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange struggled, with rebar and hot-rolled coil both down around 0.4%, wire rod easing nearly 0.2%, and stainless steel slipping 0.24%.

30-April-2025

London metals declined on Wednesday and ended the month in negative territory as a firmer U.S. dollar outweighed optimism about improving U.S.-China trade relations, with investors closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data for potential signals on the Federal Reserve’s next policy decision, as benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell 1.0% to $9,350 per metric ton, marking a 3.7% drop from its 31 March 2025 close of $9,710, while the U.S. dollar index inched up 0.1% to 99.23, making dollar-priced metals less attractive to holders of other currencies; traders are awaiting this week’s U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, a key inflation indicator that could influence the Fed’s stance and weigh on metals markets, while U.S.-China trade tensions showed signs of easing after China excluded certain U.S. goods from retaliatory tariffs and U.S. President Donald Trump signed two executive orders to limit the impact of potential auto tariffs, with several trade partners offering proposals to avoid the new measures; on the LME, aluminum dropped 0.6% to $2,452 per ton, zinc slipped 0.4% to $2,640, lead eased 0.3% to $1,972, tin declined 0.3% to $31,815, and nickel rose slightly by 0.1% to $15,565 per ton, while on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), the most-traded copper contract fell 0.5% to $10,627 per ton, supported by a sharp 32% weekly decline in warehouse inventories, which dropped to 116,753 tons as of 25 April 2025.

30-April-2025

We assess the months ahead across key trends in iron ore, metallurgical coal, copper, alumina, cobalt, lithium, nickel, steel, and scrap, focusing on shifts in supply and demand, arbitrage opportunities, and changing quality spreads, with the Asian iron ore market likely to face increased price volatility in Q2 2025 after a range-bound Q1, as global trade tensions rise and steel demand fundamentals remain weak; despite tropical cyclone disruptions, prices stayed under pressure in Q1 due to declining Chinese steel demand, heightened trade frictions, and expectations of further steel output cuts, while the 2025 iron ore outlook hinges on US-China trade relations, as tariffs and political uncertainty are expected to curb Chinese steel exports and reduce iron ore demand, prompting a slight downgrade in the average price forecast to $96/DMT for the year with further declines anticipated in the second half, though possible monetary and fiscal stimulus from China could offset some downside risk, according to analysts; demand for high-grade Brazilian fines remained soft in Q1 2025, narrowing the 65%-62% Fe spread to $12.4/DMT as of 28 March, a 12% drop from 2 January, reflecting weaker interest in cargoes like Iron Ore Carajas, with only three spot cargoes traded in Q1 versus ten in Q4 2024 and Q1 2024, while demand for medium-grade Brazilian fines was more resilient; total traded volume fell 63% to roughly 540,000 tonnes, both quarter-on-quarter and year-on-year, indicating lower buying appetite and a shift to more affordable feedstocks, as Brazilian sinter feed gained traction in China despite the rainy season, helped by attractive discounts, and high-grade fines struggled to attract interest in Chinese port stock markets as mills with recovering margins opted for more liquid medium-grade fines, suggesting bearish sentiment may persist into Q2; seaborne demand for lump and pellet weakened in Q1 amid slim steelmaking margins, with buyers reducing their use in blast furnaces and adjusting blending ratios in favor of cheaper sinter feed, and the absence of sintering restrictions further pressured lump demand, as 24 lump cargoes were traded in Q1, down 11% from the prior quarter and 14% year-on-year, with traded volume down 22% quarter-on-quarter and 16% year-on-year, and the seaborne lump premium fell to 14.65 cents/dmtu on 28 March from 14.9 cents on 2 January; pellet premiums followed the same downtrend, with limited interest from Chinese steelmakers due to weak margins and low hot metal output, leading to reliance on port-based spot purchases rather than seaborne cargoes, and the 65% Fe pellet premium dropped 30% to $12.9/dmt CFR North China on 26 March from 8 January, while the daily 63% Fe blast furnace pellet premium fell 18% to $6.7/dmt on 28 March, as mills favored pellets for cost-efficiency over lump, despite declining product quality from Indian suppliers following the early 2025 merger of National Mineral Development Corporation and Kudremukh Iron Ore Company, which lowered production costs and drove up exports but also reduced Fe content from 63% to 60% and increased combined silica and alumina from 8% to 12%, compressing KIOCL’s pellet premium to around $6/dmt over the 62% index; with low preference for higher-grade pellets, Chinese mills leaned toward cheaper, lower-grade alternatives to reduce costs and maintain productivity, and seaborne demand for lump and pellet is expected to stay weak in Q2 amid continued pressure on margins, while Chinese steelmakers focus on lean inventories and faster turnover, shifting attention to the domestic port stock market where reduced long-term contracts led to smaller spot purchases in Q1 and rising stockpiles forced discounted sales to clear inventory, with poor Q1 import margins further discouraging seaborne procurement, although Vale’s Brazilian Blend Fines regained some port interest due to favorable economics and smaller lot sizes suited to mills that avoid full capesize bulk carrier volumes, while Indian fines gained more market share at Chinese ports, applying cost pressure on low-grade Australian brands like FMG’s Super Special Fines and Fortescue Blend Fines, with Indian discounts widening from 17% in Q4 2024 to 20% in Q1 2025, adding to competitive pressure and stock buildup among low-grade fines.

30-April-2025

Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) iron ore futures rose slightly on Tuesday, supported by near-term demand from top consumer China, though gains were limited by conflicting remarks from the U.S. and China regarding trade talks, as the most-traded September 2025 iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) closed daytime trading 0.28% higher at $97.49 per metric ton, while the benchmark May 2025 contract on the Singapore Exchange slipped 0.11% to $98.3 per ton; prices for imported iron ore at Chinese ports saw modest gains on 28 April 2025, driven by continued restocking demand ahead of the upcoming five-day Labour Day holiday, and hot metal production, a key indicator of iron ore demand, rose by 42,300 tons month-on-month to 2.44 million tons, which is also 156,300 tons higher year-on-year, though pressure remains on the Chinese market to draw down inventories amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding trade relations, as U.S. President Donald Trump stated that progress had been made and that he had spoken with President Xi Jinping, while Chinese officials denied that any trade talks were taking place; additionally, signs that China’s factory activity likely contracted in April 2025 due to Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff package, which halted two months of recovery, added to the cautious sentiment; on the supply side, Australian miner Fortescue FMG reported increased third-quarter iron ore shipments, and combined iron ore dispatches from Australia and Brazil rose 13.2% week-on-week to 27.6 million tons; other steelmaking inputs on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) weakened, with coking coal down 2.36% and coke falling 1.02%, while steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange moved mostly sideways, with rebar down around 1.2%, hot-rolled coil slipping 1.26%, stainless steel inching up 0.16%, and wire rod rising 0.4%.

30-April-2025

Australian miner Fortescue FMG reported an increase in third-quarter iron ore shipments on Thursday, meeting analyst expectations as production recovered from a train derailment that had impacted the same period last year, with quarterly shipments rising to 46.1 million metric tons (mt) from 43.3 million mt a year earlier, closely aligning with the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of 46.8 million mt, and this growth occurred despite facing weather-related challenges including a five-day closure of the Port Hedland facility and disruptions from Tropical Cyclone Zelia, which contributed to a 7% decline quarter-on-quarter; shares of Fortescue FMG, the world’s fourth-largest iron ore miner chaired by billionaire founder Andrew Forrest, rose as much as 2.1% to a four-week high of A$15.8 following the announcement, while the company said it continues to review the timeline for its Iron Bridge project to reach its full annual production capacity of 22 million mt, with an evaluation of key processing equipment expected by June, and in its green energy division, Fortescue FMG is reassessing timelines for both its U.S.-based Arizona Project and the Queensland-based Gladstone PEM50 Project, with improved visibility on external factors anticipated by June 2025; the company also reaffirmed its fiscal 2025 iron ore shipment guidance of 190 million–200 million mt, including 5 million–9 million mt from Iron Bridge on a 100% basis, and maintained its capital expenditure forecast for the year at $3.5–$3.8 billion, while additionally delivering its first T 264 Power System to mining equipment manufacturer Liebherr during the quarter, marking progress in Fortescue FMG’s efforts to transition diesel-powered mining trucks to zero-emission alternatives.

29-April-2025

We have identified evolving trends in the trade of bulk raw materials from West Africa (WAFR) to China, particularly a sharp rise in bauxite flows driven by China’s expanding aluminium production, which has led to increasing demand for capesize bulk carriers, and we highlight how this demand from West Africa (WAFR) to China is poised to surge and the reasons behind it, with bauxite emerging as a major growth opportunity for capesize bulk carriers as China’s focus on greener infrastructure intensifies imports of the raw material used for aluminium, benefiting mainly West African (WAFR) ports, especially in Guinea, the world’s second-largest bauxite producer behind Australia, while China remains the top global consumer, and from Q1 2022 to Q4 2023, West Africa (WAFR) accounted for 43% of China’s seaborne bauxite imports, a share that has climbed to 54% since early 2024, with Guinea’s contribution slightly rising from 90% to 91%, and Ghana surpassing Gabon as the second-largest exporter following heavy investments by the Ghanaian Bauxite Company, with 83% of Ghana’s exported bauxite carried by capesize bulk carriers between 2024 and Q1 2025, and although China is the third-largest producer of bauxite, it still relies on imports for around 70% of its needs, supported by advantages like low electricity costs, strong vertical integration, and robust government support, while the Evergrande crisis and the cooling of the construction sector have slightly tempered aluminium consumption growth, production remains solid thanks to increasing demand in sectors like electrification, ensuring a positive outlook for capesize bulk carrier demand from West Africa (WAFR) to China as the country continues upgrading its infrastructure to more energy-efficient standards, which will require greater aluminium output and thus more bauxite imports, alongside major investments in West Africa’s mining infrastructure to boost production, and the expected Q4 2025 launch of the vast Simandou iron ore mines in Guinea, set to produce 120 million tonnes annually and projected to supply 10% of China’s seaborne iron ore imports, will further amplify capesize bulk carrier demand on the Guinea to China route, reinforcing the surge in large carrier activity as both bauxite and iron ore shipments expand.

29-April-2025

Iron ore futures slipped on Monday amid expectations that China may cut crude steel output, although the decline was cushioned by steady near-term demand for the steelmaking raw material, with the most-traded September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) closing 0.49% lower at $97.32 per metric ton, while the benchmark May contract on the Singapore Exchange edged up 0.18% to $98.6 per ton; Baoshan Iron & Steel, China’s largest listed steelmaker, suggested a nationwide output reduction was likely in 2025, noting that a 50-million-ton drop in crude steel production from 2024 levels could rebalance the country’s steel supply and demand, with domestic consumption forecast to decline by around 30 million tons and exports expected to fall by 15 to 25 million tons in 2025, yet strong short-term demand provided price support as steelmakers ramped up operations, pushing hot metal output—a key indicator of iron ore demand—to 2.44 million tons last week, its highest since October 2023, while other steelmaking materials on the DCE were weaker, with coking coal down 1.66% and coke falling 1.2%, and steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange mostly higher, as rebar gained 0.61%, hot-rolled coil rose 0.84%, stainless steel added 0.31%, and wire rod dipped 0.57%.

29-April-2025

Global seaborne steel exports experienced strong growth in 2024, with China leading the market by capturing over 30% of the total share. Steel products, making up nearly 4% of all seaborne dry bulk trade, reached a record volume of 215.8 million tonnes in 2024, an increase of 11.6% year-on-year, following a 5.2% rise in 2023 and surpassing the 207.3 million tonnes recorded in 2022. China was by far the largest exporter, accounting for 30.7% of global steel exports, with volumes rising by 27.6% year-on-year to 66.2 million tonnes in 2024, more than double the 27.7 million tonnes exported in 2020. Japan ranked second with a 12.2% share, although its exports slightly fell by 0.5% to 26.4 million tonnes, maintaining relatively stable levels over recent years. South Korea followed with a 10.3% share, increasing its exports by 5.9% year-on-year to 22.3 million tonnes, continuing a positive trend since 2020. The European Union ranked fourth with a 9.1% share, exporting 19.6 million tonnes in 2024, with Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany, and Spain among the leading contributors. Russia came in fifth with an 8.5% share, but its export volumes declined by 7.9% year-on-year, continuing a downward trend from 2021. In terms of imports, the European Union was the largest market, accounting for 16.8% of global steel imports with a 10.8% increase to 35.2 million tonnes, led by Italy, Spain, and Belgium. The United States was the second-largest importer with a 10.0% share, although imports declined slightly by 0.3% to 21.0 million tonnes, while Vietnam and Turkiye closely followed with 11.5 and 11.4 million tonnes respectively. Focusing on China, which led global steel exports with a 30.7% share, 68.8% of its shipments were carried on supramax bulk carriers and 14.5% on handysize bulk carriers, with the majority headed to Asian and Middle Eastern destinations. Vietnam was the top destination for Chinese steel, accounting for 10.7% of China’s exports after a 38.8% year-on-year surge to 7.1 million tonnes, followed by South Korea, the United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, Saudi Arabia, the Philippines, India, and Turkiye.

28-April-2025

We have identified evolving trends in iron ore flows from Indian ports, with growing domestic steel industry demand and weakening Chinese demand contributing to a noticeable decline in iron ore exports from India so far in 2025; making full use of the dry bulk flows feature allows maritime professionals to detect, track, and predict shifts in commodity flows and strategically adapt to changing market conditions, offering essential insights into a rapidly shifting landscape; supramax bulk carrier demand from India may face notable challenges throughout the rest of 2025 as iron ore shipments, primarily routed through Paradip, Dharma, and Gopalpur ports and mainly transported by supramax bulk carriers, have fallen sharply compared to previous years despite an increase in iron ore production; two major factors underpin this trend: first, India’s expanding domestic steel production, fueled by strong government backing and significant investments, is absorbing greater volumes of iron ore as the country pushes toward a 300 Mt steel production target by 2030 to support urbanization and infrastructure growth, including plans for 25 million new housing units; second, China’s steel industry restructuring aims to reduce production by around 50 million tonnes, which would lower iron ore demand by an estimated 75 million tonnes, as China seeks to stabilize steel mill profitability and cut carbon emissions by phasing out outdated blast furnaces in favor of electric arc furnaces; with India’s domestic consumption rising and China’s imports declining, the availability of Indian iron ore for export is shrinking, putting pressure on supramax bulk carriers, particularly those loading at Dhamra and Paradip where iron ore represents 87% and 83% of port cargoes respectively; further, if India’s steel demand exceeds its domestic production growth, increased steel imports could occur, typically transported by supramax and handysize bulk carriers, meaning more supramax bulk carriers could discharge steel cargoes in India without securing onward cargoes, intensifying competition and placing downward pressure on freight rates for supramax bulk carriers, especially considering that 47% of all cargo carried by supramax bulk carriers from India is iron ore and that 42% of steel imports into India are moved by supramax bulk carriers.

25-April-2025

China’s dry bulk import profile in Q1 2025 showed mixed signals, reflecting both commodity-specific trends and broader strategic shifts amid the ongoing U.S.-China trade war. A year-on-year comparison between March 2025 and March 2024 reveals divergent patterns across iron ore, coal, and grain flows. Iron ore imports from Brazil to China surged by 20.89% YoY, driven by China’s intensified focus on urban renewal initiatives. The Chinese central government plans to continue supporting urban renewal projects throughout 2025, aiming to address key public concerns and promote high-quality urban development, particularly in mega and super-large cities along major river basins, which is expected to increase demand for construction materials like steel and, consequently, iron ore. The rise in Brazilian iron ore volumes also highlights a growing preference for long-haul capesize shipments, boosting tonne-mile demand and providing upward support to freight rates on major routes such as the Baltic Capesize Index C3 (Brazil-China).

25-April-2025

Iron ore futures declined on Thursday, ending a three-day upward streak, as a stronger supply outlook from rising shipments pressured the market, though seasonal demand for the key steelmaking material helped limit the losses. The most-traded September 2025 iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) closed 0.28% lower at $98.76 per metric ton. Meanwhile, the benchmark May 2025 iron ore contract on the Singapore Exchange fell 0.99% to $99.25 per ton. Iron ore shipments to China from Port Hedland, the largest iron ore port in Western Australia, surged by 30.3% month-on-month in March 2025 following a dip in February 2025. Despite the supply increase, some support for prices came from stronger iron ore demand as steel production accelerated. Better profitability at steel mills helped boost production to 93 million tons in March 2025, maintaining positive growth for Q1 2025. The daily average steel output at major steel enterprises reached 2.113 million tons in mid-April 2025, up 3.3% month-on-month. In broader markets, Chinese equities traded sideways on Thursday after U.S. President Donald Trump expressed a willingness to reduce tariffs on China, though he ruled out unilateral actions. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Wednesday that the elevated tariffs between the United States and China were unsustainable, as President Donald Trump’s administration showed signs of readiness to ease the ongoing trade conflict between the world’s two largest economies. On the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE), other key steelmaking raw materials posted gains, with coking coal rising 0.84% and coke climbing 1.56%. However, most steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange edged down, with rebar and hot-rolled coil both slipping around 0.1%, wire rod dropping 1.96%, while stainless steel edged up 0.12%.

22-April-2025

Copper prices in London climbed to their highest level in more than two weeks on Tuesday, driven by a significant drop in the U.S. dollar after U.S. President Donald Trump intensified his criticism of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, shaking investor confidence in the U.S. economic outlook. The benchmark three-month copper contract on the London Metal Exchange (LME) rose 1.2% to $9,298 per metric ton, briefly reaching $9,333 per metric ton, the highest price recorded since 4 April 2025. Trading on the London Metal Exchange (LME) resumed following a two-day closure for the Easter Holiday. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), the most actively traded copper contract advanced 0.9% to approximately $10,549.64 per metric ton. A weakening dollar typically makes U.S. dollar-denominated commodities more attractive to buyers using other currencies. In a Truth Social post published on Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump escalated his attack on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, referring to him as a “major loser” and demanding an immediate reduction in interest rates, warning that failure to act could lead to an economic slump. Confidence in U.S. financial markets continues to erode as U.S. President Donald Trump’s economic policies raise concerns over the stability of the global economic order. In other base metals trading, aluminium on the London Metal Exchange (LME) added 0.6% to $2,379.50 per metric ton, lead climbed 0.9% to $1,940 per metric ton, tin surged 1.6% to $31,135 per metric ton, zinc increased 0.8% to $2,596.50 per metric ton, and nickel edged up 0.2% to $15,660 per metric ton. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE), aluminium slipped 0.2% to approximately $2,732.45 per metric ton, zinc gained 0.3% to about $3,080.52 per metric ton, lead rose 0.06% to around $2,343.85 per metric ton, nickel advanced 0.1% to roughly $17,370.56 per metric ton, and tin dropped 0.6% to approximately $35,650.87 per metric ton.

19-April-2025

Iron ore futures prices fell on Wednesday as the escalating trade tensions between China and the United States fueled concerns about the demand outlook, while optimism for major stimulus measures faded after the release of stronger-than-expected Chinese economic data. The most-traded September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) recovered part of its earlier decline but still ended daytime trading 0.14% lower at $96.99 per metric ton, while the benchmark May 2025 iron ore contract on the Singapore Exchange slipped by 1.28% to $97.45 per ton. Data published on Wednesday revealed that China’s economy grew 5.4% year-on-year in Q1 2025, exceeding forecasts, supported by firm consumption and solid industrial output. In the property sector, China’s new home prices remained unchanged in March 2025 compared to the previous month, reflecting an improvement over February 2025 when prices recorded a 0.1% month-on-month decline. Hopes that China would introduce aggressive stimulus measures to counteract the economic impact of United States tariffs and to meet its annual growth target have diminished, putting additional downward pressure on the ferrous sector. Despite the price weakness, there were indications of tighter supply and resilient demand, with Rio Tinto reporting its lowest Q1 2025 iron ore shipments since Q1 2019 and warning that further weather-related disruptions could affect its 2025 forecast, while Brazilian miner Vale produced 67.7 million metric tons of iron ore in Q1 2025, a 4.5% decrease from Q1 2024. Meanwhile, China’s crude steel output rose by 4.6% year-on-year in March 2025, supported by higher profit margins and robust export activity. Other steelmaking materials traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) showed mixed trends, with coking coal falling 0.77% and coke rising 0.26%. Steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange weakened, with rebar prices declining 1.06%, hot-rolled coil dropping 1.05%, wire rod falling 0.72%, and stainless steel edging down 0.08%. Steel demand has shown early signs of softening since last week, and the impact of trade tensions on steel exports is expected to become more visible by May 2025.

16-April-2025

China’s imports of iron ore declined to 93.97 million tons in March 2025, down from 94.21 million tons in February 2025 and representing a 6.7% decrease compared to March 2024. For Q1 2025, iron ore arrivals totaled 285.31 million tons, marking a 7.8% drop from Q1 2024. A major factor contributing to the weakness in iron ore imports was weather-related disruptions in Australia, which accounts for approximately two-thirds of China’s total iron ore imports. Australian exports of iron ore to China fell to 50.5 million tons in February 2025, the lowest level since 2020. Many cargoes loaded in February 2025 would have arrived in China in March 2025. However, cargoes loaded in March rebounded to 67.61 million tons, suggesting that April 2025 imports may show improvement. Coal imports across all grades reached 114.85 million tons in Q1 2025, a 0.9% decrease from Q1 2024. As with iron ore, coal shipments from Australia—China’s second-largest coal supplier after Indonesia—were affected by weather disruptions. Australia’s coal exports to China dropped to 3.74 million tons in February 2025, a two-year low. While they recovered to 6.17 million tons in March 2025, this figure remained below the 2024 monthly average of 6.7 million tons. Additionally, a decline in Chinese domestic coal prices encouraged power utilities to opt for local supplies, a trend expected to continue, thereby applying further downward pressure on coal import volumes. Copper imports also softened in Q1 2025, with unwrought copper arrivals falling 5.2% to 1.3 million tons. However, the copper market was also influenced by a temporary factor—shipments to the United States increased as traders aimed to benefit from higher U.S. prices in anticipation of an import tariff on the critical industrial metal. With the United States absorbing more cargoes, Chinese buyers opted to reduce their imports and wait for potentially lower prices once the situation regarding US President Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs became more certain. The overall trend in China’s Q1 2025 commodity imports indicates softness. Even where there were signs of strength—such as in crude oil arrivals in March 2025—these were largely driven by temporary influences. The outlook remains uncertain, particularly in light of US President Donald Trump’s current 145% tariff on U.S. imports from China, which, if sustained, will present additional challenges for China in achieving its economic growth target of around 5% for 2025.

16-April-2025

Iron ore futures prices remained confined within a narrow range on Tuesday, as iron ore traders awaited the release of additional economic data from China, the top consumer, to gain clearer insight into demand prospects and potential stimulus measures. The most-traded September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) ended daytime trading 0.99% higher at $97.5 per metric ton. Meanwhile, the benchmark May 2025 iron ore contract on the Singapore Exchange recovered earlier losses to trade 0.48% higher at $98.6 per ton. China is set to release a series of economic indicators and industrial metals output data on Wednesday. Conflicting market signals have clouded the demand outlook for iron ore, a crucial steelmaking material, causing prices to fluctuate within a limited band. Near-term iron ore demand continues to be supported by relatively high hot metal output, helping to stabilize prices despite rising trade tensions between China and the United States. However, unless there is significant positive news for the steel sector, it is unlikely that hot metal output will exceed 2.45 million tons. While China’s steel exports in March 2025 exceeded expectations by surpassing 10 million tons, shipments in the second half of 2025 are expected to come under pressure due to escalating trade frictions driven by the increased tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump. China’s gross domestic product growth is projected to reach 3.4% by 2025. A potentially slower pace of economic expansion in China may weaken demand for industrial metals. Other steelmaking inputs on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) also recorded gains, with coking coal rising 0.72% and coke climbing 2.02%. Most steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. Rebar slipped 0.19%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.34%, wire rod (SWRcv1) dropped 0.71%, while stainless steel rose 0.47%.

16-April-2025

Pilbara Ports recorded a total monthly throughput of 69.5 million tonnes (Mt) for March 2025, representing a 3 per cent increase compared to March 2024. The Port of Port Hedland reported a monthly throughput of 51.5Mt, including 65.6Mt of iron ore exports. This reflected a 2 per cent rise in total throughput compared to March 2024. Imports via the Port of Port Hedland reached 171,000 tonnes, marking a 4 per cent increase from March 2024. The Port of Dampier reported a total throughput of 15.7Mt, which was a 1 per cent decline from March 2024. Imports through the Port of Dampier were 93,000 tonnes, showing a 23 per cent drop compared to March 2024. Throughput fluctuations are influenced by several factors, such as shifts in market conditions, port maintenance activities, and the operational requirements of proponents. Since 1 July 2024, the total throughput across all ports stands at 567.1Mt.

15-April-2025

China’s iron ore imports in March 2025 declined slightly from the previous month, reaching a 20-month low and going against analysts’ expectations that monthly shipments would rebound as weather-related supply disruptions subsided. The world’s largest iron ore consumer imported 93.97 million metric tons of the key steelmaking raw material in March 2025, marking the lowest monthly volume since July 2023. This represented a decrease of 0.25% from the 94.21 million tons recorded in February 2025, when cyclones in major supplying country Australia disrupted shipments, and a 6.7% drop from the 100.72 million tons imported in February 2024. The March 2025 iron ore import volume also came in well below market forecasts, which had anticipated over 100 million tons. “March 2025 imports missed our expectations,” analysts stated. The shortfall is likely attributed to the lingering effects of February 2025’s weather-related disruptions. As a result of the lower-than-expected March 2025 import volume, portside iron ore inventory declined by 2.6%, while seaborne iron ore prices increased by 2.5%. It is believed that some cargoes may have already arrived but had not yet cleared customs and were therefore excluded from the March 2025 import data. Based on this, analysts expect April 2025 imports to exceed 100 million tons. In Q1 2025, China’s total iron ore imports fell by 7.8% year-on-year to 285.31 million tons. For April 2025, analysts project iron ore import volumes to range between 100 million and 106 million tons, as iron ore miners accelerate shipments to meet their annual goals. Meanwhile, China’s steel product exports in March 2025 increased by 5.76% year-on-year to 10.46 million tons, driven by front-loaded shipments amid rising concerns over global trade tensions following the inauguration of U.S. President Donald Trump in January 2025. This brought total steel exports in Q1 2025 to 27.43 million tons, the highest for the first quarter since 2016, reflecting an annual growth of 6.3%, according to customs data. On the other hand, China’s steel imports in April 2025 dropped by 18.8% year-on-year to 501,000 tons. From January to March 2025, total steel imports declined by 11.3% compared to the same period in the previous year, reaching 1.55 million tons.

14-April-2025

Iron ore futures edged higher on Monday, supported by encouraging economic data from top consumer China, although ongoing demand concerns stemming from the escalating trade tensions between the United States and China limited the overall gains. The most-traded September 2025 iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) closed daytime trading with a 0.28% increase at $96.68 per metric ton. Meanwhile, the benchmark May 2025 iron ore contract on the Singapore Exchange rose by 0.6% to $97.7 per ton. In March 2025, new bank loans in China rebounded more strongly than expected, recovering from a sharp decline in February 2025. This resurgence comes as policymakers reaffirm their commitment to implementing stimulus measures to support the world’s second-largest economy amid a deepening trade conflict with the United States. However, the surprisingly strong loan data tempered expectations for additional stimulus, as stronger data typically reduces the urgency for further policy support. Prices of the essential steelmaking raw material were further bolstered by lower-than-anticipated iron ore imports in March 2025, along with solid near-term demand. China’s iron ore imports declined in March 2025 compared to the previous month, reaching a 20-month low and defying analysts’ projections of a rebound following the easing of weather-related supply disruptions. Average daily hot metal output—a key indicator of iron ore demand—increased for the seventh consecutive week, reaching a 17-month high of 2.4 million tons as of 10 April 2025. However, hot metal output is expected to peak in the next two weeks before declining, affected by seasonally weaker demand. Other steelmaking inputs on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) also posted gains, with coking coal rising by 0.84% and coke advancing by 1.21%. Most steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw upward movement as well. Rebar remained unchanged, hot-rolled coil climbed 0.22%, stainless steel gained 0.87%, and wire rod edged up by 0.33%.

13-April-2025

Iron ore futures moved sideways on Friday but remained on course for a weekly decline, as intensifying trade tensions between the United States and China – the two largest economies in the world – cast uncertainty over demand prospects. The most-traded September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) ended daytime trading 0.71% higher at $96.70 per metric ton, while still recording a weekly loss of 4.8%. The benchmark May iron ore contract on the Singapore Exchange was down 0.14% at $97 per ton as of 0705 GMT, bringing its cumulative decline for the week to 4.8%. United States President Donald Trump raised tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, shortly after China retaliated by increasing tariffs on American goods from 34% to 84%. Concerns persisted about whether China would impose even higher tariffs in response. Trade tensions showed no indication of easing, and a worst-case scenario could potentially push the global economy into a recession. This broader uncertainty has dampened sentiment in the metals market, despite a brief relief following Donald Trump’s unexpected decision to implement a 90-day pause on the steep tariffs for trading partners that had not retaliated. Nonetheless, firm near-term demand for iron ore and optimism surrounding possible stimulus measures helped cap the losses. Average daily hot metal production, commonly used as an indicator of iron ore demand, rose for the seventh straight week, increasing by 0.6% from the previous week to reach a 17-month high of 2.4 million tons as of 10 April 2025. Other steelmaking materials on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) continued to decline, with coking coal falling 2.72% and coke dropping 1.42%. Most steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange recorded gains. Rebar increased by 0.26%, stainless steel rose by 0.4%, wire rod advanced by 0.21%, while hot-rolled coil edged down by 0.12%.

12-April-2025

Iron ore futures rebounded on Thursday, as the escalating trade war between China and the United States raised expectations of more aggressive stimulus measures from China to mitigate the effects of the steep tariffs. On Wednesday, top metals consumer China, in response to United States President Donald Trump increasing tariffs on Chinese goods to 104%, raised tariffs on United States imports to 84%, up from the previous 34%. Donald Trump then responded with an even higher 125% tariff. The most actively traded September iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) closed daytime trading up by 3.06% at $96.30 per metric ton, after hitting its lowest level in over six months on Wednesday. The benchmark May iron ore contract on the Singapore Exchange rose by 1.76% to $96.45 per ton, reaching an intraday high of $99.50 during the session. The potential for a prolonged trade conflict has further fueled expectations that Beijing may introduce more forceful stimulus actions. China is under pressure to implement more proactive macroeconomic policies swiftly, as external shocks have strained its economic stabilization efforts. Other steelmaking ingredients traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) were mixed, with coking coal declining by 0.38% and coke rising by 1.91%. Most steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange saw gains, with rebar and hot-rolled coil climbing 2.01%, and wire rod increasing by 3.49%. Stainless steel declined by 0.28%. Meanwhile, in a surprising reversal, United States President Donald Trump announced a 90-day pause on the steep tariffs for trading partners that did not impose retaliatory measures. This move improved market sentiment and led to a surge in metals prices. However, China’s steel exports this year may drop below 70 million tons due to the escalating trade tensions. Despite this, exports are not expected to decline in the first half of 2025 due to front-run ship activity. In 2024, China’s steel exports reached a nine-year high of 110.72 million tons.

8-April-2025

Iron ore futures declined on Monday, affected by reciprocal tariffs between the U.S. and China, the largest consumer, which have escalated the global trade conflict. The most actively traded May iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) closed the daytime trading session down 3.36% at $104.31 per metric ton. At one point during the session on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE), prices dropped to $103.17, marking their lowest level since 21 March 2025. Meanwhile, the benchmark May iron ore on the Singapore Exchange fell 2.8% to $97.8 per ton by 0752 GMT, with prices reaching a near-three-month low of $96.4 earlier in the session. Newly imposed U.S. tariffs are expected to exert downward pressure on iron ore prices in the near term. On Monday, Chinese stocks plummeted as tensions escalated between the world’s two largest economies, posing a threat to international trade flows and potentially slowing global demand. In response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s implementation of a 34% tariff on most Chinese goods, China retaliated last Friday by imposing an additional 34% tariff on all U.S. imports. This trade conflict has mitigated the impact of increasing demand for iron ore, even as steelmakers boost production for the peak construction period in March and April 2025. Hot metal production, a key indicator of iron ore demand, saw a monthly increase of 14,500 tons, reaching 2.3873 million tons. Other steelmaking components traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) also experienced declines, with coking coal and coke decreasing by 2.06% and 2.21%, respectively. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, steel benchmarks declined, with rebar falling 2.59%, hot-rolled coil dropping about 3%, wire rod decreasing 3.5%, and stainless steel declining 3.87%.

4-April-2025

Iron ore futures saw a slight decline on Thursday following U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of a comprehensive set of reciprocal tariffs, although the seasonal demand for this crucial steelmaking component mitigated the fall. The most-traded May iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) in China closed the daytime trading session 0.32% lower at $108.05 per metric ton. Meanwhile, the benchmark May iron ore contract on the Singapore Exchange dropped by 0.84% to $101.95 per ton as of 0707 GMT. The tariffs introduced by U.S. President Donald Trump were unexpectedly stringent and are expected to impact the ferrous markets significantly. On Wednesday, President Trump announced a minimum 10% tariff on most goods imported into the United States, with significantly higher rates on products from numerous countries, exacerbating a trade war that could escalate inflation and hinder economic growth both in the U.S. and globally. Chinese imports are particularly affected, facing a new 34% tariff, which brings the total new duty to 54%. In response, China called for the immediate cancellation of the new U.S. tariffs on Thursday and declared its intent to take countermeasures to protect its interests. Despite these challenges, steelmakers have increased production during the peak construction months of March and April, helping to stabilize prices. The demand for imported iron ore in China is anticipated to stay robust through April as an uptick in steel consumption is likely to prompt steelmakers to increase their production of hot metal. On the supply side, iron ore exports have decreased by 17% year-over-year due to the current cyclone season in Australia. Other steelmaking components traded on the Dalian Commodity Exchange also experienced declines, with coking coal and coke decreasing by 0.2% and 0.64%, respectively. On the Shanghai Futures Exchange, most steel benchmarks recorded losses, with rebar down 0.19%, hot-rolled coil declining 0.63%, stainless steel dropping 0.92%, and wire rod marginally rising nearly 0.4%. China’s financial markets will observe a public holiday on Friday, with trading set to resume on Monday, April 7, 2025.

2-April-2025

On Monday, iron ore futures declined, influenced by concerns about demand from China, the largest consumer, after local steelmakers reduced production, leading to lower demand for the ore. The most actively traded May iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) in China dropped by 1.47%, closing the Asia afternoon trading session at $106.59 per metric ton at 0700GMT. China has announced plans to reduce steel production due to overcapacity issues. Although no official statement has been made yet, some steelmakers have preemptively cut production in anticipation of a formal policy, which has subsequently decreased the demand for iron ore. Additionally, concerns about demand have been exacerbated by the potential escalation of a global trade war, triggered by new U.S. tariffs, adding further pressure on prices. Other raw materials used in steelmaking also saw declines on the Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE); coking coal and coke fell by 3.42% and 2.19%, respectively. Across the Shanghai Futures Exchange, most steel-related benchmarks experienced drops: rebar decreased by 1.03%, hot-rolled coil went down by 0.79%, wire rod decreased by 0.79%, and stainless steel fell by 0.85%.

1-April-2025

Chile’s Codelco, the largest copper producer in the world, is shifting some of its spot sales toward the United States. This change comes in the wake of U.S. President Donald Trump’s February directive to investigate potential new tariffs on copper imports to boost U.S. production, which seemingly triggered a surge in copper purchases. Analysts, however, do not foresee any sanctions or tariffs being imposed on copper, and they expect copper demand to remain strong in the long term due to its solid fundamentals. Codelco is actively meeting the requirements of its U.S. clients by reallocating a portion of its spot sales. The state-owned company, Codelco, reported that its production reached 1.328 million metric tons, slightly higher than the 1.325 million tons recorded in 2023 and within the projected target range. Starting in August, Codelco began reporting production figures that exceeded those of the previous year. In 2024, Codelco successfully emerged from a period of lower production, having reduced costs and addressed several longstanding issues at some of its major complexes. Additionally, Codelco announced that production is slated to commence at its Andesite and Andes Norte divisions in 2025, with expected copper output ranging from 1.37 million to 1.4 million tons. Codelco also reiterated plans to initiate a joint venture with lithium producer SQM in 2025. Furthermore, Codelco anticipates selecting a partner for the Maricunga lithium project in Q2 2025.

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